老農民版夜神月

MFR在報文中表示將不再對Faraji發報

WTIO30 FMEE 131242
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/10/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FARAJI)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/13 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 79.9 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/14 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 55

24H: 2021/02/14 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 55

36H: 2021/02/15 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

48H: 2021/02/15 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

60H: 2021/02/16 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

72H: 2021/02/16 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, FARAJI'S SHEARED PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE
OBVIOUS, WITH THE MAXIMUM OF CONVECTION BECOMING INCREASINGLY
DETACHED TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF A SURFACE CENTER WHICH IS MOVING
AWAY FROM THE CONVECTIVE AREA. THIS TILT BETWEEN THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
AND THE MID-TROPOSPHERE CONVECTIVE CORE IS VISIBLE ON CLASSICAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ALSO CONFIRMED BY THE MICROWAVE IMAGES AMSR2 OF
0822Z AND SSM/I OF 1029Z. THE SATCON ANALYSIS IS ALSO WEAKER COMPARED
TO THIS MORNING. WITH A DT DECREASING TO 2.5+, ALL THESE ELEMENTS
CONFIRM AN INTENSITY REDUCED TO 35 KT AT 1200Z.

WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, THE STEERING FLOW HAS MOVED DOWN TO
THE LOW TROPOSPHERE AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH INDUCES A
WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

EVEN IF THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE, THE INTRUSION
OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE IS IMPORTANT ENOUGH TO WEAKEN
FARAJI. ACCORDING TO MOST MODELS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (DRY AIR IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE, LACK OF LOW LEVEL INFLOW ON THE EQUATORIAL SIDE,
INSUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ON THE POLAR SIDE), WHICH SHOULD LEAD FARAJI
TO A VERY WEAK STATE BY NEXT TUESDAY.

DUE TO ITS LOW INTENSITY, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT A CYCLONIC
RISK FOR THE INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. HOWEVER, AS ITS
TRACK BRINGS IT CLOSER TO THE MASCARENES, A DEGRADATION OF WEATHER
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE.

THIS IS THE LAST BULLETIN ABOUT FARAJI.=

老農民版夜神月

EC和GFS系集加起來，已只剩下GFS有一兩條線支持能再發展

dom

JTWC06Z降格TD

19S FARAJI 210214 0600 20.4S 77.6E SHEM 30 1007

dom

JTWC09Z發佈Final Warning
WTXS32 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 019   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140600Z --- NEAR 20.4S 77.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 77.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 20.4S 75.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 20.4S 77.1E.
14FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1005
NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO
THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED CIRCULATION IN ANIMATED
VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KNOTS WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 140233Z METOP-A SCATTEROMETER PASS WHICH
INDICATED AN ISOLATED PATCH OF 30 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT AND LESS THAN 20 KNOTS IN THE OTHER THREE QUADRANTS. HAVING
DISSIPATED BELOW WARNING CRITERIA DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT, NORTHWESTERLY CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT, AND PERSISTENT
MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VWS, THE REMNANTS OF TC 19S WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW
TO MID-LEVEL STR LOCATED TO THE SOUTH BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
140600Z IS 16 FEET.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

已退化為殘餘低氣壓，即將消亡

老農民版夜神月

JTWC12Z將其再降格為DB(熱帶擾動)

SH, 19, 2021021606,   , BEST,   0, 182S,  665E,  25, 1008, TD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1010,  130,  45,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     FARAJI,  ,
SH, 19, 2021021612,   , BEST,   0, 181S,  651E,  20, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1010,  130,  45,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     FARAJI,  ,

老農民版夜神月

FNMOC於昨晚9時20分左右撤編,令人驚奇般的Faraji一生終究落幕