dom

JTWC與MFR00Z維持特強熱帶氣旋與五級颶風，並預料已達到巔峰

FKIO20 FMEE 090025
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20210209/0025Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: FARAJI
ADVISORY NR: 2021/15
OBS PSN: 09/0000Z S1404 E08305
CB: WI 120NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL530
MOV: ENE 07KT
INTST CHANGE: NC
C: 925HPA
MAX WIND: 125KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 09/0600Z S1409 E08350
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 108KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 09/1200Z S1418 E08430
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 90KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 09/1800Z S1433 E08459
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 85KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 10/0000Z S1449 E08522
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 80KT
RMK: NIL.
NXT MSG: 20210209/0600Z=

19S FARAJI 210209 0000 14.1S 83.1E SHEM 140 917

TPXS10 PGTW 090010

A. TYPHOON 19S (FARAJI)

B. 08/2315Z

C. 14.01S

D. 83.00E

E. THREE/GOES-IO

F. T6.5/7.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR B, TO YIELD A
DT OF 6.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


GOODMAN

dom

數值認為Faraji兩至三天後西折，後期還能多苟一段時間

dom

JTWC00Z偷改定強至135kts，降格4級颶風，開始減弱的趨勢
順帶一提這貨底層一直以來都不錯

19S FARAJI 210209 0000 14.1S 83.1E SHEM 135 923

dom

數值認為風切開始稍為增大
同時，Faraji也打破了西南印度洋有紀錄以來首個在二月達到VITC(特強熱帶氣旋)級別的紀錄

dom

MFR降格強烈熱帶氣旋(ITC)

CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE numéro 10 (FARAJI)

Vents maximaux (moyennés sur 10 minutes) estimés sur mer: 205 km/h.
Rafales maximales estimées sur mer: 285 km/h.
Pression estimée au centre: 930 hPa.
Position le 09 février à 10 heures locales: 14.0 Sud / 83.5 Est.

Distance des côtes réunionnaises: 3035 km au secteur: EST
Distance de Mayotte: 4150 km au secteur: EST
Déplacement: EST, à 9 km/h.

dom

JTWC06Z定強130節，風眼開始填塞，逐漸減弱中

19S FARAJI 210209 0600 14.0S 83.5E SHEM 130 930

TPXS10 PGTW 090615

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI)

B. 09/0515Z

C. 14.02S

D. 83.50E

E. TWO/GOES-IO

F. T6.0/7.0/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A
DT OF 6.0. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MARTIN

TPXS10 PGTW 090914

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI)

B. 09/0815Z

C. 14.19S

D. 83.77E

E. FOUR/GOES-IO

F. T5.5/6.5/W1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. LG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.0. MET/PT IS 5.5.
DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MARTIN

老農民版夜神月

型態明顯轉差，T值續降，1145Z僅剩下T5.0，JTWC12Z調降定強至120節

TPXS10 PGTW 091234

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI)

B. 09/1145Z

C. 14.33S

D. 84.17E

E. FOUR/GOES-IO

F. T5.0/6.0/W1.5/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 25A/PBO SM EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN B
YIELDS A DT OF 5.0. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   MARTIN

19S FARAJI 210209 1200 14.3S 84.3E SHEM 120 940

老農民版夜神月

MFR18Z定強強烈熱帶氣旋(ITC)下限90節，預估即將持續減弱為熱帶氣旋並在往南後走一個迴轉式的路徑

FKIO20 FMEE 091801
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20210209 /1801Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: FARAJI
ADVISORY NR: 2021/18
OBS PSN: 09/1800Z S1440 E08443
CB: WI 120NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL540
MOV: SE 06KT
INTST CHANGE: WKN
C: 958HPA
MAX WIND: 90KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 10/0000Z S1501 E08509
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 85KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 10/0600Z S1520 E08528
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 80KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 10/1200Z S1537 E08539
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 75KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 10/1800Z S1552 E08542
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 70KT
RMK: NIL.
NXT MSG: 20210210 /0000Z=