(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.2S 179.1W, APPROXIMATELY 330NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SUVA,
FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
VERY BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC
CONVERGENT ZONE WITH DISORGANIZED AREA OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (05-
10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND AMPLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY,
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS CONDUCIVE AT 29 CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE INVEST 94P WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE TROUGH
AND CONSOLIDATE INTO A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND
FIELD IN 24-36 HOURS APPROXIMATELY 200NM SOUTH OF AMERICAN SAMOA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 220902 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10F CENTRE [1003 HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 13.0
178.5W AT 220600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. TD10F SLOW MOVING.
DEEP CONVECTION LIES TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC WITH
POOR ORGANISATION. SYSTEM LIES JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND EAST
OF AN UPPER TROUGH IN A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ENVIRONMENT. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS LOW BUT HIGH JUST TO THE SOUTH AND NORTH. SST IS AROUND
29 DEGREES CELCIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE PICKING UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVING IT SOUTHEAST WITH
SLIGHT DEEPENING.
THE POTENTIAL FOR TD10F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS IS VERY LOW.
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 232320 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD10F CENTRE [1003HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 16.0S
175.0W AT 231800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 VIS/IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. TD10F HAS WEAKENED IN
THE LAST 6 HOURS AND HAS BEEN DECLASSIFIED INTO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AT 232100UTC.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 242310 UTC. NO SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.
ABPW10 PGTW 250600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/250600Z-260600ZFEB2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.3S 176.7W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.3S 171.5W, APPROXIMATELY
188 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 250357Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT DEEP AND FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH MINOR LOW-LEVEL BANDING. ANALYSES INDICATE AN
OVERALL UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY
HIGH (30-40KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY
INDICATE THAT INVEST 94P WILL PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH
MINIMAL CONSOLIDATION OR STRENGTHENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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