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老農民版夜神月|2021-3-5 03:38
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本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-3-5 03:58 編輯
MFR新報認為24S將於+12H後短暫增強為強烈熱帶風暴，随後逐漸減弱，等待著數值預報中24S在折返後的第二次巔峰WTIO30 FMEE 041909
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/13/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (HABANA)
2.A POSITION 2021/03/04 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 73.7 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 26 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 185 SW: 95 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 95
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/05 06 UTC: 16.5 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 35
24H: 2021/03/05 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 55 NW: 65
36H: 2021/03/06 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
48H: 2021/03/06 18 UTC: 15.7 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
60H: 2021/03/07 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
72H: 2021/03/07 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 81.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/08 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 75
120H: 2021/03/09 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 55
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+
MICROWAVE IMAGES OF THE END OF THE DAY SHOWED THAT AN INNER-CORE
BRIEFLY CONSTITUTED ITSELF AROUND 12Z BEFORE SHOWING SIGNS OF
WEAKENING AROUND 15Z. A SMAP PASS AROUND 13Z SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS AT
47 KT. THE INTENSITY HAS RISEN TO 45 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
SMAP DATA AND THE SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AT 40 KT.
OVER THE NEXT DAYS, HABANA SHOULD TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD DRIVEN BY
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. A TEMPORARY EAST-NORTH-EASTWARD TURN IS
SUGGESTED BY SOME GUIDANCES SATURDAY, AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARDS
THUS MODIFYING THE STEERING FLOW. EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE LOW SHOULD
SLOW DOWN IN RELATION WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE, BEFORE TURNING SOUTH-WESTWARD UNDER THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
HABANA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP INTENSIFYING IN THE NEXT HOURS WHILE
BENEFITING FROM CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS : EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND VERY GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE ON THE
EQUATORIAL SIDE. FRIDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE FIRST IN THE MID-LEVELS THEN IN THE UPPER LEVELS, WITH
THE STRENGTHENING OF A WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH. AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST AN INJECTION OF DRY AIR INTO
THE SYSTEM'S INNER CORE SATURDAY, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A WEAKENING.
AS THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS THE SHEAR
CONSTRAINT, IT COULD RESIST A LITTLE BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED WHILE
BENEFITING FROM A GOOD SOUTHEASTWARD DIVERGENCE, WHICH INTRODUCES A
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER SHEAR SHOULD ABATE AND THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
SUGGEST A REAL POTENTIAL FOR REINTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, THESE LONG
TERM RE-INTENSIFICATIONS HAVE ESSENTIALLY BEEN FALSE ALARMS SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE SEASON AND LOW CONFIDENCE IS GIVEN TO THIS SCENARIO.=
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