老農民版夜神月

  二級颶風  
編號：15 E
名稱：Olaf

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2021 年 09 月 06 日 05 時
命名日期　　：2021 年 09 月 08 日 20 時
撤編日期　　：2021 年 09 月 12 日 08 時
登陸地點　　：墨西哥

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 ：85  kt ( Cat.2 )
海平面最低氣壓 ：976 百帕

  擾動編號資料  
96E.INVEST.20kts.1009mb.14.6N.102.8W

  NHC：30%  

1. A broad area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms within a few hundred miles of the coast of
southwestern Mexico.  Environmental conditions are conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by midweek while it moves west-northwestward or
northwestward at 5 to 10 mph just offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

NHC展望提升至Medium,50%

1. A low pressure system located more than 200 miles southwest of
Acapulco, Mexico, is gradually becoming better defined.  
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next couple of days while it moves
west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, just offshore
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC發布TCFA

WTPN21 PHNC 060630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.9N 103.9W TO 18.3N 106.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 060600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.2N 104.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
16.2N 104.4W, APPROXIMATELY 166 NM SOUTH OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL
POCKET OF CONVECTION OVER A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A
060124 SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS AN OVERALL LACK OF
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. INVEST 96E IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (<15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96E WILL CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN AS IT
PROPAGATES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
070630Z.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

NHC展望提升至High,80%

1. Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized
this morning in association with an elongated area of low pressure
located a couple of hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by midweek while it moves west-northwestward or
northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, just offshore of the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

老農民版夜神月

NHC升格15E

15E FIFTEEN-E 210907 1800 18.1N 107.8W EPAC 30 1007

老農民版夜神月

首報上望一級颶風,65KT

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 18.2N 107.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  08/0600Z 18.4N 108.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  08/1800Z 19.0N 108.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  09/0600Z 20.0N 109.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  09/1800Z 21.1N 110.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
60H  10/0600Z 22.4N 112.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  10/1800Z 23.4N 113.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
96H  11/1800Z 24.5N 116.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  12/1800Z 24.5N 118.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

老農民版夜神月

升格TS,命名Olaf

15E OLAF 210908 1200 18.7N 107.3W EPAC 35 1005

老農民版夜神月

NHC不再上望颶風

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT  08/2100Z 19.4N 107.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  09/0600Z 20.2N 108.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  09/1800Z 21.2N 109.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  10/0600Z 22.3N 110.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  10/1800Z 23.2N 112.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
60H  11/0600Z 23.5N 114.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  11/1800Z 23.5N 115.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
96H  12/1800Z 23.1N 118.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/1800Z 22.4N 120.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW