老農民版夜神月

發展超乎預期,NHC升格C1,並上望75節

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/1500Z 21.2N 108.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  10/0000Z 22.2N 109.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
24H  10/1200Z 23.3N 110.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
36H  11/0000Z 24.0N 112.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  11/1200Z 24.1N 113.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
60H  12/0000Z 23.8N 114.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H  12/1200Z 23.2N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  13/1200Z 21.5N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  14/1200Z 21.0N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

老農民版夜神月

強度遠超預測，已達C2,即將登陸下加利福尼亞半島

482
WTPZ45 KNHC 100248
TCDEP5

Hurricane Olaf Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152021
900 PM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021

Imagery from the Mexican radar at Cabo San Lucas, along with
satellite imagery, indicates that the eye of Olaf is about to
make landfall near San Jose del Cabo, and that hurricane conditions
in the northwestern eyewall have already spread onshore.  The
eyewall cloud tops have cooled during the past few hours, and the
objective intensity estimate from the CIMSS ADT technique has
increased to 90 kt.  Based on this and an increase in the
organization of the eyewall on the Cabo radar imagery, the initial
intensity is increased to 85 kt.

The initial motion is 325/10.  Olaf should continue moving
northwestward to north-northwestward for the next 12-24 h, with the
center moving near or over the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula during this time.  After that, a mid-level
ridge extending westward from the southwestern United States should
cause Olaf to turn westward, and this should be followed by a
southwestward motion as the weakening cyclone becomes steered by
low-level northeasterly flow.  The forecast guidance has changed
little since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track has
only minor adjustments from the previous forecast.

A gradual weakening is expected during the first 24 h as Olaf
interacts with the Baja California peninsula.  When the cyclone
turns westward after 24 h, it should move over colder water and
into a drier air mass.  This combination should cause the
convection to decay, with the system becoming a post-tropical low
by 60 h and a remnant low by 72 h.  The new intensity forecast has
some minor changes from the previous forecast, and it lies in the
middle of the intensity guidance envelope.

Key Messages:

1.  Olaf is forecast to move very near or over the southern portion
of Baja California Sur tonight and Friday. Hurricane conditions
have begun within the southern portion of the hurricane warning
area tonight and will spread northward through Friday.

2.  Heavy rains associated with Olaf are expected across portions of
southern Baja California Sur through Friday. This will pose a threat
of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0300Z 23.0N 109.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
12H  10/1200Z 23.9N 110.7W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
24H  11/0000Z 24.6N 112.3W   65 KT  75 MPH...OVER WATER
36H  11/1200Z 24.8N 113.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  12/0000Z 24.4N 114.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
60H  12/1200Z 23.7N 115.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H  13/0000Z 23.0N 117.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  14/0000Z 21.6N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  15/0000Z 21.0N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

天篷大元帥

結構受地形的破壞，已經減弱為熱帶風暴。
國家颶風中心報文原文：

Tropical Storm Olaf Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152021
900 AM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021

The satellite presentation of Olaf has significantly degraded over
the past several hours after the center moved across the southern
portion of Baja California Sur overnight. The system's organized
convection has collapsed, and infrared satellite imagery indicates
cloud top temperatures are rapidly warming near the estimated center
position. The initial intensity is lowered to 60 kt for this
advisory, which now makes Olaf a tropical storm. This estimate may
still be generous, but limited surface observations and radar data
make it difficult to confidently assess the intensity. Hopefully,
scatterometer data this afternoon will provide more insight into
changes in Olaf's surface wind field.

The tropical storm has slowed down a bit since last night, and its
estimated motion is northwest (310 degrees) at 9 kt. Recent
microwave imagery suggests the center of Olaf is just offshore the
southwestern coast of Baja California Sur, and the cyclone is likely
to move roughly parallel to the coast today. Then, a strong
mid-level high pressure ridge centered over the southern Rockies is
expected to build westward to the north of Olaf. This ridge should
turn Olaf toward the west by tonight, and then toward the southwest
through early next week. The official NHC track forecast has been
adjusted to the south of the previous forecast once again, in
agreement with the latest multi-model consensus aids.

Olaf is likely to continue rapidly weakening during the next couple
of days. In the short-term, its proximity to the mountainous terrain
of the Baja California peninsula will disrupt its ability to sustain
organized convection. As Olaf moves away from land, the cyclone will
encounter decreasing sea-surface temperatures and very dry mid-level
air, which should expedite its transition into a post-tropical
cyclone. In fact, the latest GFS and ECMWF model simulated satellite
imagery show Olaf becoming completely devoid of convection within
the next 24-36 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast shows more rapid
weakening than the previous one, primarily based on recent satellite
trends and the lower initial intensity. The official forecast
remains below the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids, which are inflated
by the SHIPS and LGEM models that fail to weaken Olaf during the
next 24 h.


Key Messages:

1.  Olaf is forecast to move along the southwestern coast of the
Baja California peninsula today, with tropical storm conditions
continuing over southern portions of Baja California Sur through
this evening.  These winds should diminish tonight as Olaf continues
weakening and turns westward away from land.

2.  Heavy rains associated with Olaf are expected across portions of
southern Baja California Sur through today. This will pose a threat
of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 24.1N 111.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  11/0000Z 24.5N 112.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  11/1200Z 24.6N 113.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  12/0000Z 24.3N 114.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H  12/1200Z 23.4N 115.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  13/0000Z 22.4N 117.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  13/1200Z 21.6N 118.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  14/1200Z 20.7N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  15/1200Z 20.0N 123.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

機器翻譯(粗劣僅供參考)：

熱帶風暴奧拉夫討論號 12
NWS 國家颶風中心佛羅里達州邁阿密 EP152021
2021 年 9 月 10 日星期五上午 900 MDT

Olaf 的衛星顯示已顯著降低
在中心穿過南部的過去幾個小時
一夜之間南下加利福尼亞州的一部分。系統有組織
對流已經瓦解，紅外衛星圖像顯示
估計中心附近的雲頂溫度正在迅速升溫
位置。為此，初始強度降低到 60 kt
諮詢，現在使奧拉夫成為熱帶風暴。這個估計可能
仍然慷慨，但有限的地面觀測和雷達數據
很難自信地評估強度。希望，
今天下午的散射計數據將提供更深入的了解
奧拉夫表面風場的變化。

熱帶風暴自昨晚以來有所減弱，其
估計的運動是西北（310 度），速度為 9 節。最近的
微波圖像表明奧拉夫的中心就在海面
南下加利福尼亞州西南海岸，氣旋很可能
今天大致平行於海岸移動。然後，一個強
以落基山脈南部為中心的中層高壓脊是
預計將向西建造到奧拉夫以北。這個脊應該
今晚前將奧拉夫轉向西方，然後轉向西南
通過下周初。 NHC 的官方軌道預測是
再次調整到之前預測的南部，在
與最新的多模型共識輔助工具一致。

奧拉夫在接下來的日子裡很可能會繼續迅速走弱
天。從短期來看，它靠近山區
下加利福尼亞半島的破壞將破壞其維持的能力
有組織的對流。當奧拉夫離開陸地時，氣旋將
遇到降低的海面溫度和非常乾燥的中層
空氣，這將加速其向後熱帶氣候的轉變
氣旋。事實上，最新的GFS和ECMWF模型模擬衛星
圖像顯示奧拉夫內部完全沒有對流
接下來的 24-36 小時。最新的NHC強度預測顯示更快
比上一次減弱，主要基於最近的衛星
趨勢和較低的初始強度。官方預測
仍然低於 HCCA 和 IVCN 共識援助，它們被誇大了
由 SHIPS 和 LGEM 模型未能削弱奧拉夫在
下一個 24 小時。


關鍵信息：

1. 預計奧拉夫將沿著西南海岸移動
今天的下加利福尼亞半島，有熱帶風暴條件
繼續在南下加利福尼亞州南部通過
今天晚上。隨著奧拉夫的繼續，今晚這些風應該會減弱
減弱並向西遠離陸地。

2. 預計部分地區將出現與奧拉夫相關的大雨
南下加利福尼亞州南部一直到今天。這將構成威脅
重大和危及生命的山洪暴發和泥石流。


預測位置和最大風力

INIT 10/1500Z 24.1N 111.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 24.5N 112.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 24.6N 113.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 24.3N 114.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...後熱帶
48H 12/1200Z 23.4N 115.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/0000Z 22.4N 117.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/1200Z 21.6N 118.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/1200Z 20.7N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/1200Z 20.0N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
預報員萊因哈特

老農民版夜神月

緯度漸高,環境惡劣,已降為TD,並即將成為殘餘低氣壓

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 110249
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Olaf Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152021
900 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021

Olaf continues to rapidly weaken this evening as the low-level
circulation spins down while devoid of any deep convection. Olaf has
now failed to produce deep convection for more than 12 hours, and
barring any diurnal convective bursts tonight, could become a
remnant low as soon as tomorrow morning. Winds along the coast of
Baja California Sur are gradually subsiding, and the most recent
TAFB and SAB subjective Dvorak data-T intensity estimates support
downgrading Olaf to a tropical depression this advisory, with
maximum sustained winds of 30 kt.

The tropical depression's track continues to bend leftward as it
pulls away from Baja California Sur, with the latest motion estimate
now due west at 270/7 kt. Now that Olaf has become a shallow
cyclone, it will primarily be steered by the low-level flow around a
extensive subtropical ridge located to the northwest. This flow will
continue to turn Olaf to the left with a southwestward motion
beginning in the next 24 hours, which should continue until the
cyclone dissipates. The official NHC track forecast was nudged a
little to the south and east, following the multi-model consensus
aids.

A combination of cooling sea-surface temperatures (below 26 C) and
very dry-mid level air (below 40 percent relative humidity) should
ensure that Olaf will soon meet a swift end as a tropical cyclone.
The official NHC intensity forecast now makes Olaf a remnant low in
12 hours, and spins the circulation down to 20 kt until eventual
dissipation over the open east Pacific.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0300Z 24.7N 113.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  11/1200Z 24.7N 114.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H  12/0000Z 24.4N 115.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  12/1200Z 23.6N 116.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  13/0000Z 22.7N 117.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  13/1200Z 21.7N 118.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  14/0000Z 21.0N 120.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  15/0000Z 20.6N 121.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin