ABIO10 PGTW 190400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/190400Z-191800ZNOV2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.0N 70.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 68.7E, APPROXIMATELY 301
NM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 181350Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A POORLY ORGANIZED LLC WITH MOST OF
THE CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KTS) VWS, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-
29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONALLY, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN
THE MID-TO-UPPER LEVELS IS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93A WILL SEE MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT
TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
LOW.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.6N 83.5E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2).//
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