老農民版夜神月

  基本資料  
編號               ：98 W
擾動編號日期 ：2021 年 12 月 19 日 13 時
撤編日期        ：2021 年 12 月 23 日 22 時
98W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.2N.149.5E

老農民版夜神月

SSD T1.0

TXPQ26 KNES 191806
TCSWNP

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98W)

B.  19/1730Z

C.  6.0N

D.  148.1E

E.  FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F.  T1.0/1.0

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR

H.  REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING WAS OBSERVED AROUND THE CSC WHICH RESULTS
IN A DT EQUAL TO 1.0. THE MET AND PT AGREE WITH THE DT. THE FT IS BASED
ON THE DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...SAMBUCCI

老農民版夜神月

JTWC評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.4N
140.7E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 202057Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION OVER A BROAD AREA OF
CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS GENERALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-
10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 98W WILL TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD, AND ARE SPLIT ON DEVELOPMENT, WITH THE GFS SHOWING
SOME CONSOLIDATION AND DEEPENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAvL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TOLOW.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC取消評級

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.4N 140.7E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

老農民版夜神月

數值暫時不看好發展

老農民版夜神月

對流鬆散,數值亦不支持發展,JTWC撤編

98W INVEST 211223 1200 2.8N 140.3E WPAC 15 1010