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c789654|2011-9-26 17:50
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WTPN31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 20W (NESAT) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 15.8N 124.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 124.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 16.3N 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 16.9N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.5N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.2N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.3N 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.0N 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 20.3N 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 124.2E.
TYPHOON (TY) 20W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 260610Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICT TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE AMSU IMAGE ALSO INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS PRIMARILY
OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS RADIAL OUTFLOW ALTHOUGH THERE IS
INCREASING PRESSURE ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
ACROSS EASTERN CHINA AND TAIWAN. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HEDGED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS
BASED ON RECENT OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 79 TO 86
KNOTS. TY 20W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD ON A STRAIGHT-RUNNER
PATTERN UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE GFS MODEL, WHICH IS THE SOLE OUTLIER, INDICATING A TRACK
INTO THE RIDGE AND TOWARD HONG KONG. TY 20W IS EXPECTED TO PEAK
NEAR 90 KNOTS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL AT WHICH POINT THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. AS IT RE-EMERGES
OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA NEAR TAU 24, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
RE-INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 72 THEN WEAKEN DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION OVER HAINAN ISLAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 260600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z
AND 270900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (HAITANG) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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