|
|
c789654|2011-9-29 05:57
|
顯示全部樓層
WTPN31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 20W (NESAT) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 18.4N 113.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 113.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.2N 111.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.7N 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.0N 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 20.3N 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 20.7N 104.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 20.1N 102.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 113.3E.
TYPHOON (TY) 20W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THICK CONVECTIVE BANDING IN BOTH SEMICIRCLES AND EXPANSION
AWAY FROM THE CORE DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 281640Z OCEANSAT
IMAGE CONFIRMS THE LARGE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, SHOWING GALE FORCE
WINDS EXTENDING ALL THE WAY TO THE EAST COAST OF HAINAN. HONG KONG,
OVER 230 NM AWAY, IS ALSO REPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS. A 281652Z TRMM
IMAGE SHOWS THICK CONVECTIVE BANDING ENCLOSING THE PERIMETER OF AN
ELONGATED, RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MILD IMPINGEMENT OVER THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT, BUT EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM
RJTD AND KNES. THE PGTW 281200Z UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT TY 20W IS IN A DIFFLUENT REGION ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK
OF AN ANTICYCLONE, WHILE THE GRADIENT LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS SURGING
SOUTHWESTERLY INFLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS
29 DEGREES. THE STEERING FORCE FOR TY 20W IS THE ANTICYCLONE TO ITS
NORTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON BOTH
TRACK AND INTENSITY. THE TRACK FORECAST STAYS JUST AHEAD OF
CONSENSUS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO CONSISTENT, BUT IS NOT
SENSITIVE TO THE PENDING TOPOGRAPHICAL INTERACTION WITH HAINAN. TY
20W WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT REMAINS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE DEBILITATING
EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION, AND THEN BEGIN ITS DE-INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS AS IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER NORTHEAST HAINAN NEAR TAU 18.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
22W (NALGAE) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
|
|
