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c789654|2011-10-12 17:07
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WTPN31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (BANYAN) WARNING NR 010
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 23W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 10.5N 121.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.5N 121.5E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 11.6N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 12.8N 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 13.9N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 14.9N 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.0N 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.1N 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.0N 107.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 10.8N 121.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TS) 23W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240NM
SOUTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
TD 23W IS GENERATING WEAK, WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE ISLANDS
ENCIRCLING THE SULU SEA. THE SYSTEM IS BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED, WITH
THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER LAND. POSITION CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW BUT HAS IMPROVED FROM PREVIOUS FIXES DUE TO A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND THE EXTENDED
AVAILABILITY OF VISUAL IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS
EXTRAPOLATED FROM PRESSURE REPORTS FROM CEBU INTL (RPVM). THE LATEST
AMSU TEMPERATURE CROSS SECTION SUPPORTS A WEAK INTENSITY, REVEALING
ONLY A VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL WARM ANOMALY OVER THE SYSTEM. A 120000Z
SOUNDING AND SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM PUERTO PRINCESSA, PALAWAN
ISLAND CONFIRM THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN THE SULU SEA. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MILD IMPINGEMENT ON OUTFLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WELL-DEVELOPED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE
120000Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS SOME DIFFLUENCE
IN THE EASTERLY WIND FIELD ABOVE THE SYSTEM, BUT OVERALL THE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS POOR, WITH 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ABOVE THE LLCC. THE EASTERLIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 19N 117E. THE
STEERING FORCE FOR TD 23W IS A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
CENTERED JUST EAST OF TAIWAN. THE RIDGE IS RE-ORIENTING EASTWARD AS
A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA. AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS AWAY FROM TAIWAN, TD 23W WILL FOLLOW ALONG THE WEAKNESS
ON ITS SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS TO A TRACK
JUST NORTH OF PALAWAN AND INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA, WITH
SLOW INTENSIFICATION ALONG TRACK AND A PEAK INTENSITY WELL BELOW
TYPHOON STRENGTH. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72, TD 23W WILL LEAVE THE
INFLUENCE OF THE OCEANIC ANTICYCLONE AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A
BUILDING ANTICYCLONE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA. THE ANTICYCLONE WILL
BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM, DRIVING THE STORM ON A
WESTERLY COURSE TOWARDS VIETNAM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
120600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND
130900Z.//
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