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c789654|2011-10-13 05:13
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WTPN31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (BANYAN) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 11.1N 118.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1N 118.1E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 12.2N 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 13.6N 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 14.9N 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.1N 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.2N 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.0N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.4N 105.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 11.4N 117.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 23W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION CONCENTRATED IN A BAND TO THE NORTH. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ANIMATED IR AND A 121808Z AMSU 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 25 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT TD 23W IS APPROXIMATELY 08 DEGREES SOUTH OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER MODERATE (20 TO 30 KNOTS) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TD 23W
IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED TO THE WEST BY A LOW TO MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE CENTERED JUST EAST OF TAIWAN. HOWEVER, DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THE RIDGE SHOULD RE-ORIENTATE EASTWARD AS A DEEP MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA AND ALLOWS BANYAN TO
VEER NORTHWESTWARD. BY TAU 72 THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SHOULD EXIT
THE REGION ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHERN CHINESE COAST AND BECOME THE DOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM PUSHING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD TOWARD VIETNAM. TD
23W WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY DUE TO THE CONTINUED EASTERLY VWS AND
GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. THERE IS APPROXIMATELY
400NM SPREAD IN THE TAU 120 POSITIONS WITH EGRR LEFT AND GFS RIGHT
OF CONSENSUS. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN CONSENSUS DURING
THE FIRST 24 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS OF NOGAPS
AND MAINTAINS THE WESTWARD TRACK INTO VIETNAM DURING THE END OF THE
FORECAST MUCH LIKE THE ECMWF TRACKER DEPICTS. THE POLEWARD TRACKS OF
NOGAPS AND GFS DURING THESE LATER TAUS ARE UNLIKELY AS THIS WOULD
STEER THE SYSTEM INTO A RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
121800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND
132100Z.//
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