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c789654|2012-1-4 17:05
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顯示全部樓層
REMARKS:040900Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 75.0E.TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BENILDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 870 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) UNDER THE EFFECTS OF STRONG (40-KNOT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).THE LLCC HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND ELONGATE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND THE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY SHEARED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. A 040414Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS INDICATES 30-KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON AGREEABLE PGTW AND KNES CENTER FIXES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE WEAKENING AND ILL-DEFINED LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND THE ASCAT PARTIAL PASS. RECENT UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS PUTS THE LLCC APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROXIMATELY 6 DEGREES TO THE WEST AND CLOSING. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STRONG VWS OVER TC 04S. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SURROUNDED BY UNFAVORABLE 25 DEGREE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 04S WILL SUCCUMB TO THE STRONG VWS AND UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND DISSIPATE OVER WATER. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOONWARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 20 FEET.//NNNN
差不多要散了
巔峰
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