簽到天數: 971 天 [LV.10]以壇為家III
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jwpk9899|2012-12-29 08:18
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命名Freda
WTPS11 NFFN 281800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A08 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 28/1801 UTC 2012 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE FREDA CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 160.3E AT
281700 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS
INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ORGANISATION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED IN THE LAST 12 HOURS.
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN
UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRNOMENT.
OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE TO SOUTH. SST AROUND 30 DEGRESS CELCIUS. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT=3.0, MET AND
PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT, THUS YEILDING T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT THEN SOUTH
WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 290500 UTC 12.3S 159.9E MOV SSW AT 04 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 291700 UTC 12.9S 159.9E MOV S AT 04 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 300500 UTC 13.7S 159.9E MOV S AT 04 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 301700 UTC 14.5S 160.0E MOV S AT 04 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC FREDA WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 282000 UTC.
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