21S.Imelda 緯度漸高轉弱中

krichard2011 · 2013-4-5 22:15

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2013-4-5 22:19 編輯

雖然目前93S受到附近偏強垂直風切的影響
LLCC部分裸露暫時抑制93S的發展
不過總體來說有比昨天改善~
但是JTWC又於剛剛將93S升級HIGH並且TCFA
也轉了個大灣

EC目前也仍繼續支持他接下來的強度
可能在馬達加斯加東北方海面近岸爆發
並預測將已不弱的強度
直撲馬達加斯加東北部地區
目前還是值得繼續看下去~~

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 78.1E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3S 74.7E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE FURTHER DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER
INTO A WELL-DEFINED, ALBEIT PARTIALLY EXPOSED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 050638Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS CLEARLY SHOWS A TIGHTER
AND MORE SYMMETRIC LLCC WITH 30-KNOT WIND BARBS FEEDING INTO IT FROM
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS RELAXED AS THE CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING
WESTWARD AND IN-PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. ADDITIONALLY,
WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAIN ROBUST. THESE ARE EVIDENT ON
RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO
33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
061300Z. //

krichard2011 · 2013-4-6 15:07

結構目前大致上比之前好很多了
LLCC也再度被強對流所覆蓋
並且有開始建立CDO的趨勢
再過不久應該就可以編號並升格TC
目前主要還是受到偏強風切的影響
不過再往西前進的過程當中環境可望改善

SHYUDOL · 2013-4-6 16:18

21S.TWENTYONE, TRACK_VIS, 05 APR 2013 0826Z
升格21S

krichard2011 · 2013-4-6 21:55

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2013-4-6 21:59 編輯

很顯然目前21S仍然受到風切的影響
雲系還是會被吹離中心
且主要對流帶在中心以西
不過它似乎很奮力的吐出對流來保護自己
還是要待環境改善才可能會有大幅度成長

SHYUDOL · 2013-4-6 22:26

來來來~我們來看看這裡的負責機構MRF對他有何看法~
目前呢MFR將21S定為熱帶擾動編號10
氣壓方面認為有999hpa
路徑方面跟老J稍有不同
老J是走西南西
MFR認為先走西南西之後往東南東方向掉

krichard2011 · 2013-4-7 10:21

目前底層終於有開始建立的跡象
不過要完全整合可能還是要等一等
附近的風切也有減弱的趨勢本身幅散普通幅合良好
看看能不能趁著這個時候來快速增強~~
目前JTWC 仍上看Cat.3

現在連JTWC也已經把21S的路徑往南修了
不過誤差圈頗廣還須等幾天才會明朗
如果真的走這個路徑將受到強烈風切的影響
有被扯死的可能~~

krichard2011 · 2013-4-7 22:54

目前21S還是有跟之前一樣的毛病
主要強對流還是一直蓋不了中心
不過我還是預期這樣的情況因為風切有減弱的趨勢
未來應該會得到改善

不過目前JTWC還是下修了21S的巔峰預測強度
可能是預期它將承受不了南方那一大片強風切的區域
目前預測巔峰只會來到Cat.2

SHYUDOL · 2013-4-8 18:06

模里西斯命名為Imelda了呦~
WTMA20 FIMP 080800
WIND SPEEDS IN KNOTS

TTT WARNING OF MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION EVOLVING IN LATITUDE 11.2 DEGREES SOUTH AND
LONGITUDE 65.1 DEGREES EST AT 0600Z HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM AND HAS BEEN NAMED IMELDA BY THE MAURITIUS
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AT 0630Z.

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM IMELDA WAS CENTRED AT 0600Z IN LATITUDE
11.2S (ELEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH)AND LONGITUDE 65.1E
(SIXTY-FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST). MOVEMENT WEST 12 KT.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT, LOCALLY 35 IN THE SOUTH WESTERN SEMI
CIRCLE, AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE
CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 100NM IN THE SOUTH EASTERN QUADRANT AND
UPTO 120NM IN THE SOUTH WESTERN QUADRANT.

SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS IN A 120NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING
UP TO 260NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
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