1304 麗琵減為TD進入高緯漸轉化

我不懂氣象 · 2013-6-16 22:15

(作者:陳旭昇)
*今天6/16 全球大多數機構的數值顯示結果較昨天有點改變
這熱帶系統將從台灣東方約200~400公里的海面北上
主要因素是副高在台灣東方300公里左右海面上空
將出現弱點導引這系統有機會持續北上
但仍有少部分數值預估屆時副高弱點可望消失將大角度轉西直撲台灣
還有三天仍有變數持續關注~~

archondarz · 2013-6-16 23:22

感覺他的路徑會跟雅吉一樣

一路向北

畢竟現在才六月中

高壓西伸有限

如果是七八月就很危險了;P

SakuraSayuri · 2013-6-17 00:01

大家好小弟想知道91w同92w之間的距離足不足以發生藤原效應

ben811018 · 2013-6-17 00:01

龍王 · 2013-6-17 00:14

本帖最後由龍王於 2013-6-17 00:14 編輯

氣象局說未來這個低壓未來成颱機率不大
不知道是真是假
http://www.ttv.com.tw/102/06/1020616/10206164924603L.htm

zu00818733 · 2013-6-17 05:41

中央氣象局針對91W已經改變為TD且在天氣概況中說明此TD有發展為輕颱的可能性。

日本氣象廳也已經預測此TD未來走向。

krichard2011 · 2013-6-17 07:35

JTWC已發TCFA
不過我個人認為雲系結構還是有點鬆散
還是有在改進的空間
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.5N

127.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 127.2E, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVED, CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 161851Z SSMI IMAGE
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND SOUTH
QUADRANT WITH A BROAD LLCC. A 161544Z OSCAT IMAGE INDICATED AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS WITH HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL
LOCATED NEAR 21N 127E. THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT TRACKS
NORTHWARD, PARALLEL TO THE EAST COAST OF THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS HIGH.

複製代碼

阿隆 · 2013-6-17 09:08

JMA凌晨已發出Gw,預測方向是西北~北北西。
底層對流目前仍是破碎狀態,但此時大氣環境已轉支持,就視一旦成颱後的發展如何再逐步更新。
TD
Center position                                        N13°05'(13.1°)
                                                                     E127°00'(127.0°)
Direction and speed of movement       NW Slowly
Central pressure                                        1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed                   23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 17/09 UTC>
Intensity -                                                    TD
Center position of probability circle    N15°00'(15.0°)
                                                                     E125°55'(125.9°)
Direction and speed of movement       NNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure                                        1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed                   23m/s(45kt)
Radius of probability circle                      150km(80NM)
<Forecast for 17/21 UTC>
Intensity                                                       TS
Center position of probability circle    N16°55'(16.9°)
                                                                     E125°00'(125.0°)
Direction and speed of movement       NNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure                                        1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center  18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed                   25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle                      220km(120NM)