jwpk9899

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.5N 134.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 10 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A POORLY DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTENSION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. A
131449Z OSCAT PASS DEPICTS THIS TROUGHING, WITH THE MAXIMUM TURNING
LOCATED OVER THE ISLAND OF PALAU. WINDS WITHIN THE TROUGH ARE
GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS, HOWEVER ISOLATED HIGHER VALUES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION ARE PRESENT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF DEVELOPMENT, WITH LIGHT (05-10
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL
TO THE NORTH. A TIME SERIES OF 850 MB VORTICITY AND TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE LLCC IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED. SEVERAL DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK CIRCULATION OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

阿隆

蘇力僅管登陸消散中但因北上所引入~原本不怎明顯西南氣流開始轉威了!(今早起對流移入西南部正降大雨中)
另樓上總監已有提及南海季風槽,目前看來不但已重新建立,目前見於南海南部蘊釀有擾動開始蠢動機率不低喔!
93W過去幾小時中心重調整(7.5N-133.8E)後開始有機會旋起,不過底層尚處破碎所以LOW評沒錯!(若南海南部在未來1~2天會有擾動發展,那麼93W所原預測可能路徑或許需重新思考)

wongben

在HKO的數值預測天氣圖中,下週中期似乎有一個南海的系統形成並移向海南島, 可能對93W的移向有影响.
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powerng

如果93W發展起來，又要面臨與南海的低壓競爭，可能會出現互旋，最終可能兩敗俱傷。

millerkit31

香港天文台已在天氣預報中提及有低壓區於下周中期發展，如果屬實，依現時駛流分析，該低壓會移向珠江口一帶，假如其時93W又發展的話，因其位於副高南面，所以生成後會向西北西走，如南海低壓與其距離又夠近的話，或許會產生互相干擾的情況，到時預測將增加難度。惟一切言之尚早，有待及後再作分析。

ben811018

西太副高會逐漸斷開~分成兩股
一股在西太遠洋～另一股則在台灣附近
因此９３未來大致朝向呂宋島後進入南海北部的機會最高
台灣南部要注意外圍水汽北上帶來的降雨
要直接影響機會不是太高

wombatkimo

請各位大大至中央氣象局觀看衛星雲圖，今晚下午五點半之後，連續三小時之圖，可以明確看到93W位址上方有明確螺旋捲入發展，請問各位大大這是中心調整嗎 還是其他的熱點發展中呢

powerng

副高要19號才西伸，但部分預報指93W進入南海北部。