簽到天數: 3899 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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best2684|2013-7-15 08:30
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經過一晚的發展之後，附近海溫較高，風切也不大JTWC已將93W升級至Medium
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.5N 133.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 128.0E, APPROXIMATELY 415 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION AROUND AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH IS STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE SEVERAL DEGREES NORTHWARD OF THE PRIOR POSITION. WHILE THE MOST RECENT ASCAT AND OSCAT IMAGERY CONTINUE TO DEPICT TROUGHING, LOW- TO MID- LEVEL CLOUD LINES IN THE EIR SUGGEST WESTERLY WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE LLCC. ADDITIONALLY, A TIME SERIES OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND 850 MB VORTICITY SUPPORTS IMPROVING ORGANIZATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD, GOOD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH, AND MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY FAVORABLE AT 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. WINDS WITHIN THE TROUGH ARE GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS WITH INCREASING VALUES TO THE NORTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION AS WELL AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEVERAL DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK CIRCULATION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS WINDS CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO THE OBSERVED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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