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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.3N
125.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 123.9E, APPROXIMATELY 35 NM NORTH
OF CEBU CITY, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ACTIVE AREA OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. ANIMATED
COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE PHILIPPINES DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE
AND TECHNOLOGY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED, ALBEIT HEAVY, RAIN BANDS
LOOSELY ROTATING AROUND A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CEBU, MAASIN, AND SURIGAO CITY
INDICATE WINDS ARE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
(MSLP) VALUES ARE BETWEEN 1008-1009 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THIS AREA IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER A DIFFLUENT
ANTICYCLONE, WITH LIGHT (10-KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A VORTEX FROM THIS AREA
MOVING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, WITH GFS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND MSLP IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
重新被评级，再次加强，南海风切貌似有减弱的趋势
JMA：TD，涡度泛橙 |
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