1309 燕子即將登陸海南島

martin191919 · 2013-7-30 06:42

GW囉...

马鞍二世 · 2013-7-30 07:33

JMA/TD-a/07.29-21Z
熱帯低気圧
平成25年07月30日07時20分発表

<30日06時の実況>
大きさ       -
強さ       -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域       南シナ海
中心位置       北緯 14度10分(14.2度)
東経 119度30分(119.5度)
進行方向、速さ       北西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧       1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速       15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速       23m/s(45kt)

<31日06時の予報>
強さ       -
存在地域       南シナ海
予報円の中心       北緯 16度20分(16.3度)
東経 116度55分(116.9度)
進行方向、速さ       北西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧       998hPa
中心付近の最大風速       18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速       25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径       220km(120NM)
GW:'(了
定位一览
Synoptic Time Latitude Longitude Intensity
201307291800 13.8 118.3 20
201307291200 13.4 117 20
201307290000 12.2 121.5 20
201307281800 11.7 122 20
偏西分量较大

millerkit31 · 2013-7-30 07:55

清晨開始，位於菲西的低壓區組織改善，雲開始繞中心轉，對流數量亦增，相信又再度增强成熱低。
路徑大方面相信仍無大變，仍會以西北為大方向。清晨起，見到500層圖，副高又再加強西伸，在衛星雲圖也見到有一冷低，在呂宋海峽以東，由東向西走，證明副高有所加強，故可預計熱低初期會有較多偏西向量；惟本人一直指出副高位置偏東，加上日本附近不時有槽蠢動，未來副高能否再西伸存疑，本人因此較傾向估計熱低走至約東經116度左右，漸會出現較偏北路徑，向華南至廣東西部的雷州半島進發。
強度方面，冷低有效加強低空輻合，估計熱低會有機會繼續增強，上試熱帶風暴的級數。

阿隆 · 2013-7-30 09:20

zjk369 · 2013-7-30 12:33

一道高壓脊會在今明兩天為中國東南部帶來普遍晴朗的天氣。現時在南海中部的低壓區正在發展中，並會在本週中後期移向南海北部，為該區及華南沿岸帶來不穩定的天氣。

martin191919 · 2013-7-30 14:04

JTWC : MEDIUM

888894 · 2013-7-30 14:08

JTWC已經把91W再次升回medium了
看來成颱的機率還是很高的

ABPW10 PGTW 300600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/300600Z-310600ZJUL2013//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1N
118.E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 116.0E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM WEST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE
BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM, EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
ACTIVE AREA OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, HAS EXPANDED OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS, ENHANCED BY A SOUTHWEST SURGE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS AREA IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
JUST SOUTHWEST OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH LIGHT (05-10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN
A WEAK VORTEX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA TOWARDS HAINAN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ALL HAVE FORECAST
MAXIMUM INTENSTIES BELOW 30 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS, BASED ON A RECENT SCATTEROMETRY
PASS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. IN
VIEW OF THE IMPROVED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

马鞍二世 · 2013-7-30 14:17

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1N
118.E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 116.0E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM WEST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE
BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM, EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
ACTIVE AREA OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, HAS EXPANDED OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS, ENHANCED BY A SOUTHWEST SURGE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS AREA IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
JUST SOUTHWEST OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH LIGHT (05-10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN
A WEAK VORTEX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA TOWARDS HAINAN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ALL HAVE FORECAST
MAXIMUM INTENSTIES BELOW 30 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS, BASED ON A RECENT SCATTEROMETRY
PASS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. IN
VIEW OF THE IMPROVED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
Medium，现在正在南海中部，涡度泛橙！但环流还有待整合