J18

91W原本在經度140E 北緯12度左右 今天它的中心大量南偏
來到了明答那峨島東方 我早上看雲圖時以為菲東那塊雲是91W呢!
大量南偏的原因可能是美軍暫時找不到中心 故把明答那峨島那塊泛紅的窩度當作是91W
那裏的幅散幅和還不錯 唯獨風切偏強是一大問題!

J18

這是91W最新的風場掃描!

sheeprex

目前數值還是先看看就好 不要太過認真
畢竟還有一段的時間跟距離      

martin191919

JTWC：LOW
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.3N 135.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 70 NM SOUTH OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT
HAS STARTED TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE WITH WEAK FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.
SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 221452Z SHOWS A WEAK, (05-10 KNOTS) BROAD
CIRCULATION IN THE AREA AND A WESTERLY WIND BURST ALONG THE EQUATOR
JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 230107Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO IMPROVE BUT
OVERALL REMAINS POOR. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE LLCC IS
EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW WHICH IS PROVIDING MODERATE OUTFLOW
AND MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

ha093405

氣象局預測未來一週會有熱帶系統接近台灣，跟大家討論的這隻不知道有沒有關聯

J18

其實他的幅散幅合皆不錯 窩度也相對的深
他最大的問題仍然是風切 但近幾個小時風切稍減
勢必會對他有利!

我不懂氣象

菲律賓東南方的雲　
會不會變颱風ㄚ？
今年日本本地　
颱風數量怎還掛鴨蛋的原因是什麼ㄋ？

millerkit31

我不懂氣象 發表於 2013-8-24 19:44
菲律賓東南方的雲　
會不會變颱風ㄚ？
今年日本本地　

今年日本少風，很大原因是因為今年的副高強度偏強，且中心多維持在日本附近的中緯地方，颱風相對副高而言只像粒細沙石，尺度上強度上，颱風自難北上突破副高，到訪日本。惟九月開始，北方西風槽漸活躍，副高東退情況出現機會比前大，屆時台風就有可能北移了。