1315 康芮警報解除往東北移動前進日本

millerkit31 · 2013-8-24 21:56

說回91W，其實其已具一定渦度，位置目前在菲律賓東南海域。香港天文台的電腦預測91W會增強，並向西北移動，橫過菲中，於72小時後進入南海中部。由於天文台已預計高壓會西伸，故進入南海後，相信91w會大致維持西北路徑，趨向海南島附近海域。惟現時一切只是預測，須待更進一步觀察才能再分析。

martin191919 · 2013-8-24 22:08

本帖最後由 martin191919 於 2013-8-24 22:09 編輯

MEDIUM
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0N
133.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 132.0E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
NORTHWEST OF KOROR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 241106Z SSMIS
37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF A BROAD LLCC. A 240022Z
ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH WITH VIGOROUS 20 TO 25 KNOT WESTERLIES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DISTURBANCE AND 10 TO 15 KNOT EASTERLIES
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM KOROR
INDICATE 10 TO 15 KNOT SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS WITH A SLP VALUE
NEAR 1010 MB. HOWEVER, THE 24/00Z KOROR SOUNDING INDICATES A DEEP
LAYER OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE
THROUGH ABOUT 15000 FEET. THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WITHIN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND BROAD UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, VWS SHOULD
DECREASE ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY AND CONSOLIDATE INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS INDICATED BY BOTH NAVGEM AND GFS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

麻友飯 · 2013-8-24 23:26

本帖最後由麻友飯於 2013-8-24 23:27 編輯

martin191919 發表於 2013-8-24 22:08
MEDIUM
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0N
133.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 13 ...

結構轉好大概與風切降低有關吧〜〜:lol

ben811018 · 2013-8-25 01:38

未來高壓的位置很重要～
目前各數值預報的差異不大～
認為北方西風槽的南壓與東移將促使高壓勢力東退且減弱～
進而導引９１往北移動～趨向台灣東部海域～

預計下週北方高壓會帶點北風下來～
如果又配合９１在台灣東部海域活動帶來水汽～
那麼台灣這一帶要注意南北氣流交會下的強降雨發生～

九月的天氣系統變化莫測～
實際上會怎樣還很難說～

ktf · 2013-8-25 01:40

本帖最後由 ktf 於 2013-8-25 01:42 編輯

非常明顯的LLCC,數值反應有快有慢
副高情況,原先預測看衰發展是副高強勢讓他發展不起來
不過現在又不同

副高預測的也不是多強勢,之後有洋中槽切斷
導引低尾西伸,直接讓91W緩慢北北西移
系統明顯發展起來就要留意了

月底的冷空氣一直報的頗明顯,明顯的槽東移
可以逼退副高,其實低尾西伸就表示弱勢了
即使沒靠近也可能將地面北風南扯(看強度如何)

繼續看下去