jwpk9899

IMA這次相當看好02B的強度
預估有機會達到特強氣旋風暴目前IMD認為他已經增強為一個強低氣壓(DD)


Time of issue: 0900 hours IST Dated: 09-10-2013
Bulletin No.: BOB 04/2013/05
Sub: Deep Depression over north Andaman Sea: Cyclone Alert for North Andhra
Pradesh and Orissa Coast.
Cyclone Warning for Andaman & Nicobar Island
The depression over North Andaman Sea moved northwestward with a speed of 13 kmph during past 6 hours, intensified into a deep depression and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 09thth October 2013 over north Andaman Sea near latitude 13.00N and longitude 93.50E, about 170 km north-northeast of Port Blair, 1100 km east-southeast of Paradip, 1200 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam. The system would intensify into a cyclonic storm during next 12 hours. It would move west-northwestwards and cross Andaman islands near Mayabandar by noon of today, the 9thth October 2013 as a cyclonic storm. It would then continue to move west-northwestwards for some time and then northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast between Kalingapatnam and Paradip by night of 12thth October, 2013 as a very severe cyclonic storm with a maximum sustained wind speed of 175-185 kmph.

CX723-A330

中心已經成形了!?
這.....這也整合得太快了
果然是來自西太的擾動，有着暴力級的增強速度

jwpk9899

IMD升格氣旋風暴
命名PHAILIN


Time of issue: 2000 hours IST Dated: 09-10-2013
Bulletin No.: BOB 04/2013/09
Sub: Cyclonic storm, PHAILIN in East central Bay of Bengal:
Cyclone Alert for North Andhra Pradesh and Orissa Coast. Cyclone Warning for Andaman & Nicobar Island



The deep depression over east central Bay of Bengal remained practically stationery, intensified into a cyclonic storm, PHAILIN and lay centred at 1730 hrs IST of today, 09thth October 2013 over near latitude 13.50N and longitude 92.50E, about 220 km north-northwest of Port Blair, 950km southeast of Paradip, 1100 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam. The system would intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hours. It would continue to move west-northwestwards for some time and then northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast between Kalingapatnam and Paradip by night of 12thth October, 2013 as a very severe cyclonic storm with a maximum sustained wind speed of 175-185 kmph.
Squally winds speed reaching 50-60kmph gusting to 70 kmph would prevail over Andaman Nicobar Islands and adjoining sea areas during next 24 hours. Sea condition will be very rough along and off Andaman and Nicobar Islands during next 24 hrs.

Meow

按照 IMD 與 JTWC 預測，這有望成為北印度洋近年來最強熱帶氣旋，而且若真以特強氣旋風暴甚至超級氣旋風暴登陸恆河三角洲，Phailin 可能成為 2013 年傷亡最慘重風暴。

jwpk9899

底層風眼大致上已經建立完畢了
老J也將強度提升到50kt了
至於IMD暫時還在35kt(好像還沒到發報時間吧)
而老J依然持續上80kt(C1)
IMD則繼續上看100kt(特強氣旋風暴)
另外 CDO已形成
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION


                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                3.8 / 989.1mb/ 61.0kt

Meow

相當有氣勢，乍看之下雲捲風眼要形成了。

Meow

說完沒多久，才過一小時，可見光雲圖已經可以看到風眼了，真是嚇傻了。

Meow

這底層真好，完整的風眼加上飽滿圓潤的 CDO，很多熱帶氣旋都達不到。