martin191919

JTWC : LOW
ABPW10 PGTW 271100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/271100Z-280600ZOCT2013//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.7N, 146.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 180NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND ELONGATED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION.
A 270952Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN UNORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIFFLUENT
WESTERLY OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

jwpk9899

現在Yahoo首頁的新聞
怎麼覺得怪怪的...

予報円の半径

220km(120NM)

關島熱低壓 可能增強為颱風

中央社中央社 – 2013年10月27日 下午8:03
（中央社記者林紳旭台北27日電）中央氣象局今天表示，關島附近生成一個熱帶性低氣壓，有可能增強為颱風，目前行進方向往西。
根據日本氣象廳資料，今天晚間7時，關島附近的熱帶性低氣壓的中心在北緯11.3度、東經145.3度，以時速10公里往西前進，近中心最大風速每秒15公尺。
日本氣象廳預測，這個熱帶性低氣壓明晚行進速度將加快為每小時20公里，也可能會在明晚增強為輕度颱風，7級風暴風半徑約220公里。

湘水琳琅

剛剛升上MEDIUM了~
目前對流大爆發~~~~

jwpk9899

睡一覺起來 看到衛星雲圖嚇一跳
感覺像突然多了個颱風在那裡一樣...

　一、熱帶性低氣壓１００５百帕，在北緯１２．５度，東
經１４２．５度，即在關島附近海面，向西北西移動，時速１
５公里。

katocha

jwpk9899 發表於 2013-10-28 05:38
睡一覺起來 看到衛星雲圖嚇一跳
感覺像突然多了個颱風在那裡一樣...

真的,螺旋性越來越好了,準"柯羅莎"即將成形了,天氣預報風險管理公司說這個準台風是西進形式的

krichard2011

看來這隻變數可能不小
NCEP部份數值往北修了不少
未來的關鍵可就再於北方的高壓
是否會產生弱點讓颱風北上
期是就算沒有
還是要注意未來這個系統如果真的形成颱風
可能會跟北方的東北季風產生共伴效應
有可能會為北部及東北部地區帶來大雨
這個系統後期值得注意

此外這個颱風的結構也有逐漸好轉的趨勢
螺旋性已經趨於明顯 樣子大致上已經有了
不過底層還是稍嫌鬆散有待整合一下
已當前的環境來說 還不太適合這個系統發展
周圍風切偏強加上西方的一大片乾趨 還有待改善





不過讓我比較納悶的是
這張風場掃描掃到的LLCC似乎稍南了一些

丹尼兒

分別於前兩支的轉向派 這顆是值得留意下了 算是有威脅到台灣的機率了

當然系統環流還未構建好 目前各大數值仍然還有是南北誤差擺盪情況  不過自昨晚開始已有部份數值往北修的情況

通果呂宋西北沿岸至巴士海峽的機率升高不少 至少可確定的是 周四他的外圍就有機會影響台灣天氣了 目前模式預測柯羅莎通過巴海時 環流有機會與北方系統互動 宜花間有猛烈降水的預測

大家對這支的動向及發展可多留意了

krichard2011

JTWC 發布TCFA
整體結構跟昨天相較起來 已經改善很多了
有機會的話 今晚到明天JMA 應該就有機會升格了

REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.6N, 140.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 139.7E APPROXIMATELY 305NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS STARTED TO CONSOLIDATE ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE BANDING CONTINUES TO REMAIN FRAGMENTED. A 280831Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING THAT HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IMPROVED DIFFLUENT WESTERLY AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT(GREATER THAN 28 DEGREES CELSIUS). DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE ISDEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 TO HOURS AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY WEST AND CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINEDSURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVELPRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.