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krichard2011|2013-10-28 18:56
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本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2013-10-28 19:02 編輯
JTWC 發布TCFA
整體結構跟昨天相較起來 已經改善很多了
有機會的話 今晚到明天JMA 應該就有機會升格了
REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.6N, 140.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 139.7E APPROXIMATELY 305NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS STARTED TO CONSOLIDATE ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE BANDING CONTINUES TO REMAIN FRAGMENTED. A 280831Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING THAT HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IMPROVED DIFFLUENT WESTERLY AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT(GREATER THAN 28 DEGREES CELSIUS). DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE ISDEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 TO HOURS AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY WEST AND CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINEDSURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVELPRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
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