簽到天數: 3291 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2014-4-24 10:11
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評級Low
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.5N 154.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 175 NM EAST OF CHUUK, FSM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING FEEDING INTO A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT
(05-10 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE
PERENNIALLY WARM (28-30 CELSIUS) AND CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
NUMERIC MODELS, HOWEVER, ARE NOT DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM TO JTWC
WARNING CRITERIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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對流還是一樣衰弱= =
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