you

幅散強,幅合弱,風切強,偏轉力弱,祼露也不足為奇。:o:o 現在終告裸露。

you

路徑問題:
1.空氣在低緯度移動較慢，偏轉力弱。於是，一股向北的力作用到熱帶氣旋上,使他北移(BATA效應)
2.副高影響

減弱問題:
1.風切很強
2.乾空氣
3.幅散強,幅合弱
4.重心偏離

you

99w對流爆發,加以幅合,不知道會否待續~
他採取了偏東的路徑,減少了後期西折的可能性。

甜心

今天從雲圖上看起來99w低氣壓中心結構方面有比較好轉一些，不過由於外圍雲系減弱消散掉很多使它目前還是很虛弱可以說是處於瀕死狀態雲層整體結構還是很差一直消消漲漲的。

路徑方面今天已經轉偏西北方向在進行有北轉一些些了，至於未來怎麼走就得看副高跟它北方的鋒面低壓對它產生的間接影響了。

you

you

他的強對流覆蓋着他的中心,情況不再糟糕,並得以改善。

t02436

加報升評Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5N
144.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 145.0E, APPROXIMATELY 187 NM SOUTH
OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY-ORGANIZING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 261158Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 261159Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A 10-15 KNOT
CIRCULATION WITH 20 KNOT WIND BARBS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
DUE TO PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

you

他附近的幅合及幅散變強，使他更容易對流爆發&整合，對流越來越強，他的雲帶開始集中，而風圈也開始集中，不過風切很強，乾空氣範圍很大，仍是有些憂慮他的發展，由於他日益漲大，又沒有虛肥的問題出現，所以他的發展開始受到注視。