krichard2011

樣子已經漸漸有了
整體螺旋性變得相當完整
前途應該不錯

甜心

martin191919

JMA:TD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 10N 137E WEST SLOWLY.

t02436

JTWC分析T1.5
TCFA有機會在近幾小時內發出

TPPN12 PGTW 160918
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (NE OF PALAU)
B. 16/0832Z
C. 10.2N
D. 136.7E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .35 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. PT
AGREES; MET WAS N/A. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   16/0336Z  9.7N  137.2E  GPMI
   16/0417Z  9.7N  137.2E  MMHS
   LONG   

===================================
SSD分析T1.0

TXPQ29 KNES 160340
TCSWNP

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93W)

B.  16/0232Z

C.  9.9N

D.  136.6E

E.  THREE/MTSAT

F.  T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...DT OF 1.5 IS BASED ON 0.3 BANDING. MET IS 1.0 AND PT IS
1.5. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS THAT LIMIT THE INITIAL CLASSIFICATION
TO A FT OF 1.0.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...RAMIREZ

脫離雷馬遜牽制
對流也逐漸發展起來
螺旋性明顯
數值支持發展

krichard2011

JTWC 發佈 TCFA!
報文尚未出

wangsj1968

WTPN21 PGTW 161130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.7N 138.0E TO 12.2N 132.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 160600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.0N 136.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.


2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0N
137.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 136.8E, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
NORTHEAST OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND
PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 160650Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO
SHOWS IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION WITH SOME SLIGHT EAST-WEST ELONGATION
WHILE CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.


3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
171130Z.//
NNNN

J18

氣象局在準氣旋系統仍是擾動時 基本上皆是抄襲EC
另外準10W 未來很有機會靠近台灣 對此要特別留意!

Wayne

有如複製貼上一般

GFS下午的預報和早上一模一樣，6天後登陸花東

目前已經是連續好幾報都有這樣跑了@@