1413 金娜薇史上第七個東太跨洋旋

t02436 · 2014-8-2 14:13

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-8-2 14:22 編輯

CPHC最新一報重回Medium

2. Remnant low Genevieve is currently located about 540 miles south of Hilo, Hawaii. Atmospheric conditions are increasingly favorable for its possible redevelopment over the next few days as it moves westward near 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 50 percent.

對流有重新爆發起來但暫時缺乏組織性
距離換日線還有25個經度

最近剛好10N附近有一條低風切帶
中太擾動才會得以生存

krichard2011 · 2014-8-2 19:48

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-8-2 19:52 編輯

CPHC又再度 HIGH 也TCFA 了
整體對流改善相當多
EC也是一報比一報強
預測最高強度64m/s 換算地面約51m/s
約強颱等級左右

ECMWF PDF原檔

t02436 · 2014-8-2 21:04

Meow · 2014-8-2 23:04

CPHC 重新升格並預測 8 月 7 日以風速 45 節跨過換日線，亦即預測第 13 號颱風叫做 Genevieve。

WTPA22 PHFO 021440
TCMCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP072014
1500 UTC SAT AUG 02 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 155.7W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 155.7W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 155.1W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 11.6N 157.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW  45NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 11.2N 159.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW  45NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 10.8N 162.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  25SE  25SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 11.0N 164.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 12.5N 169.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 14.5N 175.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 16.5N 178.0E
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 155.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

... · 2014-8-3 06:38

衝回TS CPHC給35KT
並且認為此系統將緩慢增強並西行進入西太平洋
至於最新的VIS看來雲層似乎沒有很好的包覆
發展待觀察囉~

... · 2014-8-3 11:10

本帖最後由 ... 於 2014-8-3 11:15 編輯

CPHC在新一報又再次把GENEVIEVE降回TD
不過依然看好在跨洋時候升格TS 並帶著這名字進入西太

krichard2011 · 2014-8-3 11:55

現在結構稍鬆散
剛剛降回TD 不過五日預測仍上看 60 KT
目前看起來對流仍呈現消長狀態
不過後期強度應該是大有可為 @@

INIT  03/0300Z  9.8N 158.8W 30 KT  35 MPH
12H  03/1200Z  9.3N 160.9W 30 KT  35 MPH
24H  04/0000Z  9.0N 163.5W 30 KT  35 MPH
36H  04/1200Z  9.2N 165.9W 35 KT  40 MPH
48H  05/0000Z  9.9N 168.2W 35 KT  40 MPH
72H  06/0000Z 11.7N 173.0W 40 KT  45 MPH
96H  07/0000Z 13.9N 178.5W 50 KT  60 MPH
120H  08/0000Z 15.7N 176.0E 60 KT  70 MPH