簽到天數: 3291 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2014-9-6 10:46
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本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-9-6 23:20 編輯
昨天晚上的TCFA是誤發
今天02Z正式發出2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.5N
127.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 127.3E, APPROXIMATELY 234 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROADLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FRAGMENTED BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP ALONG THE
PERIPHERY TOWARDS THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION. RADAR IMAGERY FROM
MIYAKOJIMA, JAPAN SUPPORTS THE POSITIONING OF THE LLCC TO THE
SOUTHEAST BUT DUE TO THE FLARING CONVECTION, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE POSITIONING AT THIS TIME. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INDICATES A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE LLCC IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA ARE SUPPORTING A ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
JMA發布Warning
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 16.5N 115.0E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 22.6N 126.6E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
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