1418 巴逢轉化後加速東北移動

Meow · 2014-9-27 01:41

JTWC 一下就提升評級到 Medium，看來 JMA 很快就要升格 TD 了。

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.6N
166.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.3N 166.3E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INTENSIVE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 261222Z TRMM
MICROWAVE PARTIAL IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING TOWARDS THE CENTER. A 260958Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED 10 TO 15 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO
25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HOWEVER, THE
KWAJALEIN RADAR LOOP DOES NOT CURRENTLY DEPICT ANY TURNING. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS DIVERGENT EASTERLY AND SLIGHT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, PROVIDING OVERALL EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND SUSTAINING THE
PERSISTENT CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

Meow · 2014-9-27 02:23

好像已經開始旋轉了，進展相當快，頗接近 TD 水平。

就連 JTWC 也分析到 T1.5，很快就要 TCFA 甚至 18W 了。

TPPN11 PGTW 261816

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99W (SW OF KWAJALEIN)

B. 26/1732Z

C. 5.7N

D. 165.9E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5  STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. PT AGREES WITH DT, WHILE MET IS
UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
26/1222Z  6.7N  167.0E  TRMM
26/1526Z  5.6N  166.1E  MMHS
26/1544Z  5.7N  166.0E  SSMI

CHAPPOTIN

pcstar · 2014-9-27 07:30

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-9-27 09:09 編輯

一覺醒來已經TCFA了，應該很快有機會升格18W

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.6N
166.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.6N 166.0E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH PERSISTENT
CENTRAL CONVECTION WHILE THE CONVECTION ALONG THE OUTER PERIPHERIES
REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND FLARING IN NATURE WHILE SOME BROKEN
CONVECTIVE BANDING CAN BE OBSERVED ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK. A
261923Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
STRUCTURE AS CONVECTION REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. A 260958Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWED AN ELONGATED 10 TO 15 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25
KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS BEING OFFSET BY WIDELY DIVERGENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW AND
THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH.

Meow · 2014-9-27 10:26

00Z 仍舊是陋噗蚋穴誒狸呃:dizzy:

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 06N 165E WNW SLOWLY.

blackcat · 2014-9-27 10:45

99W 雖然TCFA
雲圖上來看其實環流蠻小的
對流則是都集中在西側要整合不容易
未來行徑路線強度又可能遇到強風切阻礙
要升格可能還需要一段時間

而GFS跟EC預測也顯示不一樣的結果先看看就好

krichard2011 · 2014-9-27 19:41

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-9-27 19:43 編輯

沒有錯的話 EC這報出現的低壓系統
可能就是99W 至少初始場經緯度是大致穩合的
做成動畫比較方便觀察...

BlankCat · 2014-9-27 22:45

是不是因為受到 1417 影響而發展不了?

(上次大型輕颱1412 就是離遠影響 1411)

蜜露 · 2014-9-28 00:05

本帖最後由蜜露於 2014-9-28 00:06 編輯

現在發展有點受到抑制.

西側疑似分離另一個系統

不過我比較保守..兩個系統距離比較近..

兩個互旋感覺可不容易..

不過歷史上西太曾經有過一段活躍期. 就是90年代的聖嬰現象.

其中1990年奧文比芝 , 1991年耐特密瑞兒 , 歐凱特帕特 , 1992年蓋伊漢特 , 1994年弗恩薇爾達 , 1997年艾文瓊恩.

是同時共旋,也是同天強度極端的颱風. 而且都是附近的系統生成

特別是1992年的漢特蓋伊疑似是同個系統之後分離發展的..而西側的漢特移速較快. 東側的蓋伊無法追上.
兩個都是強度較強的颱風.後者還是更極端的.

5天後獨自發展