juchu

以小J最新48小時預測圖來看
事實上之前EC預測會接近台灣的應該是99W西邊那坨雲發展起來的系統
不過EC最新一報已經大改
預測99W會暫時抑制西邊雲系發展
並朝往日本前進
雖然後來還是有出現新系統出現但是畢竟日子還久變數更大
目前99W也被老J降評
究竟這兩個系統會如何演變只能繼續看下去

zjk369

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-200.42,40.42,512五台共旋

krichard2011

話說99W 又重新發布TCFA 了 @@

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.4N 159.9E TO 14.0N 152.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
280530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.1N
158.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.4N
159.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 158.7E, APPROXIMATELY 850 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A SMALL, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BROAD,
FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 272304Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC WITH LIMITED
DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT. RECENT
SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20
KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
PTPN, 180NM SOUTH, SHOW LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INTO THE TUTT POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

krichard2011

目前結構上還趨於鬆散
整體螺旋性甚至比剛編號擾動的時候還來的差
還需要一些時間來做整合
目前附近環境大致還不錯
GFS目前是支持發展的 路徑也一改先前提早北上的路徑
往西修到侵襲沖繩一帶後北上 路徑方面仍有變數

ben811018

blackcat

EC預測分裂成2個系統這種變數真的誇張大
而GFS持續預測99W會是個有強度且路徑變化大的系統
GFS因為對槽線很敏感 所以對秋冬系統掌握度還不賴
而EC則是先看看吧...有鑒於對上次北冕前期預測有點落差...

Meow

GFS 最新預報嚇死台灣人