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Meow|2014-12-30 15:26
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本帖最後由 Meow 於 2014-12-30 15:34 編輯
Kate 進入西南印度洋責任區成為強烈熱帶氣旋（intense tropical cyclone），法國評價最大風速 95 節、中心氣壓 947 百帕，超過在澳洲責任區的強度。
WTIO30 FMEE 300649
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/4/20142015
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (KATE)
2.A POSITION 2014/12/30 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 89.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL
NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 947 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :11 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 160 SE: 220 SW: 200 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SW: 110 NW: 80
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : UNKNOWN
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/12/30 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 88.4 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2014/12/31 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 86.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2014/12/31 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 84.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2015/01/01 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 81.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2015/01/01 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/01/02 06 UTC: 24.8 S / 79.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/01/03 06 UTC: 27.3 S / 80.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2015/01/04 06 UTC: 29.3 S / 84.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=5.5 CI=5.5+
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON FIX FROM MET7 AND FY2E.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS WITH A
3H DT AVERAGE TOPPING AT 5.8 AT 04Z. GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OTHER DVORAK
ASSESSMENT FROM PGTW AND KNES (5.5 AT 0530Z). ADT IS AT 110 KT (1 MIN
WIND) AT 06Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE.
LATEST MW IMAGERY FROM THIS MORNING SUGGEST THAT THE INNER CORE HAS
BEGUN TO WEAKEN ... PRECURSOR SIGNS OF THE WEAKENING TREND.
THE SYSTEM IS NOW SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITHIN A LESS AND
LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR AND COOL SST SOUTH OF 18S. A RAPID WEAKENING TREND IS THEREFORE
ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD LOOSE ITS MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS NEAR 20S AND
COMPLETE ITS EXTRATROP TRANSITION LATER THIS WEEK.= |
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