17P.Pam 南太平洋論風速之新風王幾乎癱瘓萬那杜全國

zjk369 · 2015-3-13 12:11

正在爆發

蜜露 · 2015-3-13 12:17

他的核心雖然小 , 但風場真的很大....嚇死人了
今日有機會近一步加強. 老J的8.1.4 CI已分析出7.3

CX723-A330 · 2015-3-13 14:20

本帖最後由 CX723-A330 於 2015-3-13 14:36 編輯

美圖時間:

P.S 動畫製作中

CX723-A330 · 2015-3-13 15:47

本帖最後由 CX723-A330 於 2015-3-13 15:48 編輯

斐濟評130kts
風速已與南太風王Zoe平手
同時上望135kts

HURRICANE WARNING 030 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 13/0701 UTC 2015 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM CENTRE [900HPA] CATEGORY 5 WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7
SOUTH 168.7 EAST AT 130600 UTC. POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 16.7S 168.7E AT 130600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 08 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 130 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 135 KNOTS
BY 131200 UTC.

t02436 · 2015-3-13 15:57

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2015-3-13 16:28 編輯

JTWC 06Z給出145Kts

FMS則是提升到130Kts
12小時內衝擊巔峰135Kts

** WTPS11 NFFN 130600 ***
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A24 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 13/0722 UTC 2015 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM CENTRE [900HPA] CATEGORY 5 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 16.7S 168.7E AT 130600UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR GMS VIS/IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 130 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,
                     AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,
                     AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,
                     AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 210 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                     AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                     AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                     AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

EYE WELL DEFINED. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH
STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. OUTFLOW GOOD. PAM IS BEING STEERED
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 200HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH OW EYE, COLD DARK GREY SURROUND,
YIELDS DT=7.0, MET =7.0 AND PT=6.5. FT BASED ON DT, THUS YIELDING
T7.0/7.0/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODEL AGREE ON A SOUTHERLY MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION AND GRADUAL WEAKENING.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC 19.0S 169.0E MOV AT 03KT WITH 135 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 140600 UTC 22.1S 170.3E MOV AT 03KT WITH 120 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC 25.6S 172.7E MOV  AT 03KT WITH 100 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC 29.4S 175.8E MOV  AT 03KT WITH 090 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 131400 UTC.

維拉港實測972.5hPa
氣壓持續下探

今日Aqua

南北半球四旋共舞

維拉港實測網址
http://goo.gl/kqHV4l

四旋MASAT-IR

http://www.alanbanks.org.uk/MTSAT-IR.jpg

自動更新雲圖

jsd6660 · 2015-3-13 18:09

本帖最後由 jsd6660 於 2015-3-13 18:16 編輯

krichard2011 發表於 2015-3-12 21:13
斐濟瘋狂了升格五級強烈熱帶氣旋
且更是上看 130KT 如成真
如成真將成為斐濟評價史上最強之一

CX723-A330 · 2015-3-13 21:08

135kts
新一代南太風王誕生

HURRICANE WARNING 031 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 13/1302 UTC 2015 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM CENTRE [899HPA] CATEGORY 5 WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5
SOUTH 168.7 EAST AT 131200 UTC. POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 17.5S 168.7E AT 131200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT 08 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 135 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 90 KNOTS
BY 141200 UTC.