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斐濟認為還沒到頂，預測最大風速將到 140 節，關鍵就在風眼能否達到 WMG。
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A25 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 13/1420 UTC 2015 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM CENTRE [899HPA] CATEGORY 5 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 17.5S 168.7E AT 131200 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR GMS EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT
08 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 135 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 090 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 070 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 090 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 090 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 210 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD WITH EYE DISCERNABLE ON MTSAT EIR IMAGE.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PESISTENT. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH UPPER DIVERGENCE. OUTFLOW GOOD IN
SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. PAM IS BEING STEERED SOUTHWARDS BY A
NORTHERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND FLOW. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO
200HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE
PATTERN WITH OW EYE AND COLD DARK GREY SURROUND, YEILDS DT=7.0,
MET=7.0,PT=6.5. FT BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING T7.0/7.0/D0.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODEL HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH
GRADUAL WEAKENING.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 20.1S 169.4E MOV SSE AT 13 KT WITH 140
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC 23.4S 171.4E MOV SSE AT 16 KT WITH 90
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC 27.4S 174.7E MOV SSE AT 19 KT WITH 70
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC 31.6S 178.2E MOV SSE AT 21K T WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 132000 UTC. |
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