martin191919

果真的LOW了...

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.9N 144.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 271 NM SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN ILL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 250413Z NOOA-19 MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING BROADLY WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN
AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (05 T0 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, NAMELY THE POLEWARD CHANNEL THAT IS
TAPPING INTO THE TUTT CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

甜心

:)過去一天94w低壓整體狀況看起來發展還不錯螺旋很明顯展現強度方面有升評且未來發展評價也是被看好的。

:o不過今天的路徑預報EC跟GFS有做了點調整對我們臺灣產生影響的機率有被調高許多後期動向可能得注意一下它。

;P但其實大大們供應的這樣的預測圖巧合的與我國中央氣象局最近幾日預測的圖有符合到，我們中央氣象局預測從明天開始太平洋高壓的強度會略微增強西伸我們將恢復到豔陽高照無雨的好天氣。

不過從大大們给的預測圖看起來未來幾日太平洋高壓是乎不只是略微增強，應該要說是有一定的幅度的增強西伸了。

980256

蔡秉勳

看了GFS 06z被嚇了一跳,小弟依預報圖作了推測:
    由於民答那峨島近海東南方的低壓發展起來,未來將阻斷西南風給94w的水氣,並與94w產生藤原效應,結果當然是由取得水氣供應優勢的低壓得以繼續發展,接著將以偏西北的路徑侵襲台灣,也就是說侵台的系統並非94w,然而未來變數多,各機構看法仍有落差,看看就好~
另外由EC GFS最近幾報來看,太平洋的低壓活躍起來,又是追風的時候了

980256

每一報都在改，這次預測會從原來的[恆春]南修到(巴士海峽)，長遠預測就是這樣，不知ˇ道下一報會怎麼預測。

980256

不確定性非常的高，預測的路徑只有一點點而以。

martin191919

取消評級

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.3N
143.5E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.