980256

已經好幾報都這樣了，95w會把94w吃掉，然後增強為中度颱風，並且從巴士海峽通過。

logdog

980256 發表於 2015-6-26 13:50
已經好幾報都這樣了，95w會把94w吃掉，然後增強為中度颱風，並且從巴士海峽通過。

...

240以前的連續好幾報
可信度仍然趨近於0...
建議等颱風先形成
再來看看怎麼走

logdog

980256 發表於 2015-6-26 13:50
已經好幾報都這樣了，95w會把94w吃掉，然後增強為中度颱風，並且從巴士海峽通過。

...

240以前的連續好幾報
可信度仍然趨近於0...
建議等颱風先形成
再來看看怎麼走

juchu

EC先畫大餅
95W吃掉94W變成範圍廣泛的大颱風

t02436

JTWC 重評Low

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.1N 145.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 380 NM SOUTH OF ANDERSON AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED EIR SHOWS
AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST DUE
TO 15 TO 20 KNOT EASTERLY VWS. EXCELLENT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS
PARTIALLY OFFSETTING THE VWS. A 281148Z METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE FURTHER SHOWS A WELL DEFINED, BUT ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH
MINIMAL CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE POSSIBLE WEAK DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS SLOWLY
EASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

JMA預計48小時內有機會增強為熱帶性低氣壓

戴廷翰

未來個機關還是比較看好95,為來95會先把周圍的雲系吸走，合併後再去吸94。我覺得就算94被升級了，強度應該也突破不了熱低壓，但時間還有點久，參考參考就好，為來可是充滿了變數，數值說變就變，還是慢慢觀察為來的變化吧～大家一起加油吧～:):):)

t02436

JTWC提升評級至Medium

  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.9N
147.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 148.9E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM WEST
OF FANANU. A 2318Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A CONSOLIDATED LLCC WITH GOOD
OVERALL STRUCTURE. WHILE THE MSI LOOP CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE SYSTEM
AS SIGNIFICANTLY ELONGATED AND LACKING DEEP CONVECTION, UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF INTEREST IS IN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MODEL DEVELOPMENT INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL INTERACT WITH THE SYSTEM NOTED IN PARA AND DEVELOP INTO A
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

t02436

入夜後對流有所加強


JMA 12Z升格TD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 08N 146E ALMOST STATIONARY.