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JamesLin|2015-8-5 11:09
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顯示全部樓層
STY 13W WILL REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UP TO TAU
72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO THE SUBSIDING EFFECT OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT. AFTERWARDS, THE DIMINISHING EFFECT OF THE
TUTT PLUS CONTINUED LIGHT VWS, GOOD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SSTS WILL
REINVIGORATE THE CYCLONE TO A SECONDARY PEAK OF 125 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, STY SOUDELOR WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
TAIWAN, THE TAIWAN STRAIT, THEN MAKE LANDFALL INTO CHINA NEAR FUZHOU.
AFTERWARDS, A MIGRATORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL
WEAKEN THE STR AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE MORE NORTHWESTWARD. DEGRADED
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN AND ERODE
THE SYSTEM ANEW - REDUCING IT TO 45 KNOTS BY END OF FORECAST. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST |
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