krichard2011

稍早颶風獵人觀測到海平面氣壓 955.6百怕 10秒平均風 114 KT
根據實測稍後NHC應該有機會升格MH

t02436

NHC根據最新實測資料馬上發出18Z報
直接評價115節，C4達成，巔峰上望130Kts。

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 221759
TCDEP5

HURRICANE PATRICIA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
100 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

This Special Advisory updates the initial and forecast intensity of
Patricia, based on a recent NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft SFMR
observation of 114 kt. The aircraft reported that the central
pressure was around 958 mb. Some of the wind radii have also been
adjusted outward. This Special Advisory replaces the 1800 UTC
intermediate advisory.

The environment is expected to be conducive for continued
strengthening in the next 24 hours, with the cyclone in an area of
very low shear and SSTs above 30C. Some slight weakening is shown on
Friday prior to landfall, as southwesterly shear begins to increase,
and Patricia could undergo an eyewall replacement cycle. After
landfall, Patricia should rapidly weaken, and the low-level
circulation should dissipate over the high terrain of Mexico before
72 hours.

No change was made to the track forecast from the previous
advisory.

KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Confidence is increasing that Patricia will make landfall in the
hurricane warning area as an extremely dangerous major hurricane
Friday afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and
property in the hurricane warning area should be completed today, as
tropical storm conditions will begin to affect the warning area
tonight or early Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1800Z 15.0N 104.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
12H  23/0000Z 15.8N 105.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
24H  23/1200Z 17.2N 105.7W  130 KT 150 MPH
36H  24/0000Z 19.3N 105.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
48H  24/1200Z 22.5N 103.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
72H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

蜜露

Raw  T  = 8.2  報表 !!!!   Cat.5 誕生


這隻和巨爵相似. 就是經過今年很少有熱帶氣旋經過的那個路徑. 但兩者最大不同是結構.
巨爵初期高低層分離.結構很差.花太多時間發展.

而帕翠莎則是已經建立好了底層基礎,而立即爆發.  

後者當然比前者更好.

這是我第一次看過 CIMSS ADT 有達到8.2 報表的數值.  海燕最高是8.1

從下圖來看表示. 帕翠莎增強太快了. 造成Raw和其他表格滯後太多.


其實東太8.2.1版與其他海域不同.  8.1.4 Raw T才到7.4而已. 還不如蘇迪勒的7.7 鸚鵡再8.1.4還一度達7.8


當然這颶風有追風計畫觀測的優勢.  稍早已經升格Cat.5   140kts
成為今年東太平洋的風王.  也算是中太+東太今年風王 超越了8月底的希梅娜和前一號歐拉夫

這個颶風很不得了.  不只有實測.  包含颶風本身..有CMG+OW..並且有建立CDG環趨勢.

不過CDO很小.  很多颱風吧的人說可否挑戰妮妲. 甚至海燕.

我覺得這趨勢先挑戰鸚鵡再說吧.




這個颶風類似1997琳達  CDO很小,有完整的CMG環.  如果維持強度.風眼再度清空.
155kts不是夢

ben811018

存圖記錄囉!

t02436

krichard2011

實測非常給力
稍早颶風獵人測到最低海平面氣壓 890.9 百帕
10秒平均風 179kt!!

044200 1630N 10510W 6970 02975 9860 +115 +115 124094 096 074 010 00
044230 1628N 10511W 6974 02942 9824 +120 +120 124102 104 083 014 00
044300 1627N 10512W 6981 02896 9782 +119 +119 122108 112 093 010 00
044330 1626N 10513W 6960 02862 9719 +116 //// 121122 128 108 006 01
044400 1624N 10514W 6968 02767 9628 +101 //// 123141 148 135 004 05
044430 1623N 10515W 6945 02665 9472 +108 //// 125159 166 146 013 05
044500 1622N 10516W 6841 02577 9265 +128 //// 130158 179 /// /// 05
044530 1621N 10516W 6861 02414 8989 +171 +151 128064 126 /// /// 09

ktf

蜜露 發表於 2015-10-23 10:10
Raw  T  = 8.2  報表 !!!!   Cat.5 誕生

巨爵除了高OHC,其他完全沒得比,水氣一般,也沒外掛可接
這隻一早就接著西風急流了,然後水氣非常的驚人,發展條件罕見的好
所以大爆發

其實結構和環境場息息相關,水氣好北側有外掛
結構自然很快轉好對稱,過去也不少超大風場的STY

我們看到結構有缺陷的,環境場自然也一般
所以個人一直認為OHC如何還沒比水氣和北側流出重要



西側的olaf也是有超好的高空輻散,不過水氣太乾燥所以強度沒得衝上來,可能OHC也比較不足點