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krichard2011|2016-4-17 17:38
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顯示全部樓層
這型態應該算是這幾天裡面最美的一張
另外 MFR 現在預測 轉彎後有再重新增強的機會
並且巔峰持續上看 ITC 頂
- WTIO30 FMEE 170613
- RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
- TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
- 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/8/20152016
- 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FANTALA)
- 2.A POSITION 2016/04/17 AT 0600 UTC:
- WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.6 S / 52.6 E
- (TEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
- MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 10 KT
- 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/W 0.5/18 H
- 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 939 HPA
- 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
- RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :17 KM
- 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
- 28 KT NE: 120 SE: 300 SW: 370 NW: 120
- 34 KT NE: 90 SE: 170 SW: 190 NW: 90
- 48 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 60
- 64 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50
- 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 300 KM
- 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
- 1.B FORECASTS:
- 12H: 2016/04/17 18 UTC: 10.0 S / 51.2 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
- 24H: 2016/04/18 06 UTC: 9.5 S / 50.0 E, MAX WIND=115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
- 36H: 2016/04/18 18 UTC: 9.6 S / 49.7 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
- 48H: 2016/04/19 06 UTC: 9.8 S / 49.9 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
- 60H: 2016/04/19 18 UTC: 10.5 S / 51.0 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
- 72H: 2016/04/20 06 UTC: 11.5 S / 52.3 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
- 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
- 96H: 2016/04/21 06 UTC: 14.0 S / 54.3 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
- 120H: 2016/04/22 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 56.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
- 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
- T=CI=6.0+
- OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, FANTALA INTENSITY HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE EVEN
- IF THE LAST INFRARED IMAGERIES SHOW A CLEAR TOP CLOUDS COOLING.
- FANTALA MOVES CLOSER DANGEROUSLY TO FARQUAHR ARCHIPELAGO. FANTALA
- IS FORESCASTED TO CROSS OVER THE ARCHIPELAGO DURING THE FIRST PART OF
- THE NIGHT TO THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. ASSOCIATED TO GUSTS
- AROUND 300 KM/H THE STORM SURGE SHOULD REACH 2 METERS LOCALLY,
- ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE CORE.
- THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS NORTHWESTWARDS TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN
- AND NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF A HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL CELL LOCATED SOUTH OF
- MADAGASCAR, WITH A RIDGE AXIS OVER MADAGASCAR. TODAY AND TOMOROW,
- THIS RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SHIFT PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARD AND LEAVE ROOM
- FOR A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. FANTALA SHOULD BE CENTRED WITHIN A COL WITH
- CONTRARY STEERING FLOWS. SO, FANTALA IS FORESCASTED TO BEGIN TO SLOW
- DOWN THIS NIGHT WHEN IT SHOULD TRANSIT CLOSER THE FARQUAHR ISLAND.
- TUESDAY, FANTALA SHOULD STOP ITS NORSTWESTWARD TRACK AND BEGIN A
- SLOW ABOUT-TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST UNDER THE NORTHEASTERN
- STEERING FLOW OF A BUILDING MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. FROM
- WEDNESDAY, FANTALA SHOULD KEEP ON ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY
- UNDER THE TWICE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
- NORTH-EAST AND AHEAD A WIDE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
- THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS DIFFICULT DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM.
- THE INTENSITY FLUCTUATES RAPIDLY WITH SMALL FLUCTUATIONS OF THE
- ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. WITHOUT ANY EARLY INDICATIONS OF THE
- BEGINNING OF AN ERC AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT OF THE UPPER
- LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, FANTALA IS LIKELY TO DEEPEN
- SLOWLY. FROM MONDAY, ON THE SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK, THE SELF INDUCED
- SST COOLING COULD BECOME THE MAIN FACTOR OF THE WEAKENING OF THE
- SYSTEM AS ATMOSPHERIC FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EXCELLENT.
- WEDNESDAY, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, THE UPPER
- LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY DETERIORATE WITH AN INCREASING
- NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. FANTALA SHOULD BEGIN A
- WEAKENING PHASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.
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