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19S.Fantala 路徑曲折 新科南印風王誕生

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krichard2011|2016-4-17 21:43 | 顯示全部樓層
最近這一兩天結構真的進步很多
JTWC C5 達標
MFR 也上調到了 ITC 的上限 115 KT
  1. SH, 19, 2016041712,   , BEST,   0, 103S,  517E, 140,  918, ST,  34, NEQ,   80,   95,  100,   80, 1009,  190,  10,   0,  10,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,    FANTALA, D,
  2. SH, 19, 2016041712,   , BEST,   0, 103S,  517E, 140,  918, ST,  50, NEQ,   40,   45,   40,   25, 1009,  190,  10,   0,  10,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,    FANTALA, D,
  3. SH, 19, 2016041712,   , BEST,   0, 103S,  517E, 140,  918, ST,  64, NEQ,   20,   25,   25,   15, 1009,  190,  10,   0,  10,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,    FANTALA, D,
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20160417.1330.meteo-7.ircolor.19S.FANTALA.140kts.918mb.10.3S.51.7E.100pc.jpg

  1. WTIO30 FMEE 171232
  2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  4. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/8/20152016
  5. 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FANTALA)
  6. 2.A POSITION 2016/04/17 AT 1200 UTC:
  7. WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.4 S / 51.7 E
  8. (TEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES
  9. EAST)
  10. MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 10 KT
  11. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/D 0.5/6 H
  12. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 932 HPA
  13. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 115 KT
  14. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM
  15. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  16. 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 390 SW: 330 NW: 130
  17. 34 KT NE: 90 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 90
  18. 48 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SW: 90 NW: 60
  19. 64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
  20. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 300 KM
  21. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

  22. 1.B FORECASTS:
  23. 12H: 2016/04/18 00 UTC: 10.1 S / 50.7 E, MAX WIND=115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
  24. 24H: 2016/04/18 12 UTC: 9.9 S / 49.9 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
  25. 36H: 2016/04/19 00 UTC: 10.2 S / 50.2 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
  26. 48H: 2016/04/19 12 UTC: 10.5 S / 50.9 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
  27. 60H: 2016/04/20 00 UTC: 11.5 S / 52.5 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
  28. 72H: 2016/04/20 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 54.1 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
  29. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
  30. 96H: 2016/04/21 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 56.9 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  31. 120H: 2016/04/22 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 59.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

  32. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  33. T=CI=6.5+
  34. OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, FANTALA HAS INTENSIFIED ONCE AGAIN WITH A
  35. IMPROVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EQUATORWARD. EYE HAS
  36. WARMED UP. 3 HR MEAN DT IS AT 6.6 AND RAW DT IS AT 7.0 SINCE 1100Z.
  37. FANTALA IMPACTS NOW SEVERELY FARQUAHR ARCHIPELAGO. FANTALA IS
  38. FORESCASTED TO CROSS OVER THE ARCHIPELAGO DURING THIS NIGHT WITHOUT
  39. WEAKEN. IN ADDITION TO GUSTS AROUND 300 KM/H THE STORM SURGE SHOULD
  40. REACH 2 METERS LOCALLY, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE CORE.
  41. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS NORTHWESTWARDS TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN
  42. AND NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF A HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL CELL LOCATED SOUTH OF
  43. MADAGASCAR, WITH A RIDGE AXIS OVER MADAGASCAR. TOMOROW, THIS CELL IS
  44. FORECASTED TO SHIFT PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARD AND LEAVE ROOM FOR A MIDLATITUDE
  45. TROUGH. FANTALA SHOULD BE LOCATED WITHIN A COL WITH OPPOSITE
  46. STEERING FLOWS. SO, FANTALA IS FORESCASTED TO BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN THIS
  47. NIGHT WHEN IT SHOULD TRANSIT CLOSER THE FARQUAHR ISLAND. MONDAY
  48. NIGHT, FANTALA SHOULD STOP ITS NORSTWESTWARD TRACK AND BEGIN A SHARP
  49. TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST UNDER THE NORTHEASTERN STEERING FLOW OF A
  50. BUILDING MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. FROM TUESDAY, FANTALA
  51. SHOULD CONTINUE ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE TWICE
  52. INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH-EAST AND
  53. AHEAD A WIDE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
  54. THE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN ALWAYS CONDUCIVE UP TO TUESDAY.
  55. FANTALA TAKES BENEFIT FROM A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE DIVERGENCE
  56. IS VERY GOOD AND SEVERAL FAST SHORT WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD
  57. TRANSIT SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND EVEN TEMPORALLY INCREASE THE
  58. POLERWARD OUTFLOW. ONLY SELF INDUCED SST COOLING AND EYEWALL
  59. REPLACEMENT CYCLE COULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
  60. WEDNESDAY, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, THE UPPER
  61. LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY BECOME LESS FAVOURABLE WITH A
  62. GRADUAL INCREASING NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. FANTALA
  63. SHOULD BEGIN A WEAKENING PHASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY UP TO THURSDAY.
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[LV.8]以壇為家I

krichard2011|2016-4-17 23:36 | 顯示全部樓層
最近一張底層看的出來 CDO 非常扎實
並且看的到Groupe Farquhar 就在眼牆南側
可惜沒有氣象站 如果有實測的話 相信數據應該會很可觀
20160417.1432.f17.91pct91h91v.19S.FANTALA.140kts.918mb.10.3S.51.7E.66pc.jpg
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Meow|2016-4-18 00:39 | 顯示全部樓層
由索米NPP衛星在2016年4月17日截取馬達加斯加東北方的強烈熱帶氣旋Fantala。

Fantala 2016-04-17 0955Z.jpg
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wi ... 016-04-17_0955Z.jpg
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Meow|2016-4-18 03:33 | 顯示全部樓層
風之聲原文:https://www.facebook.com/typhoonbbs/posts/831170750360449

法國氣象局升格Fantala為特強熱帶氣旋,10分鐘最大風速135節、中心氣壓910百帕;聯合颱風警報中心評為1分鐘最大風速150節。以風速論,Fantala超越2015年Eunice成為法國評價西南印度洋史上最強熱帶氣旋,也是美國評價和1995年Daryl-Agnielle並列南印度洋史上最強。

1天前開始Fantala逐漸擺脫高層風眼不清晰的毛病,自4月17日白天起呈現深邃的風眼。中心對流雲區也不再東寬西窄,形成了明顯對稱的深對流環,底層掃描更呈現強悍的眼牆。Fantala在當地傍晚(台北/香港時間21:00左右)就達到形態上的巔峰並維持相當長時間,使得法國和美國相繼給予極高評價。

未來動向是Fantala讓預報員最頭疼的地方,因為環境條件將在之後幾天變得極其複雜,模式預報如ECMWF、GFS更是每一報都呈現截然不同的結果。除了目前比較肯定1天後將折返以外,到底Fantala會走向何方實在拿不出主意,有往東南遠去、也有往莫三比克/莫桑比克前進的。

只有數十居民的法夸爾環礁數小時前經歷了Fantala的風眼,由於此系統南側風圈比北側大,馬達加斯加北部也正受到Fantala影響。一些模式預報最糟的情形是幾天後再經過馬達加斯加並影響葛摩/科摩羅,若真發生只能盼Fantala不要讓這些窮國有重大災情。
SWI$08_20152016.png
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Meow|2016-4-18 03:49 | 顯示全部樓層

法國氣象局:Fantala寫下(西南印度洋)歷史

  1. WTIO30 FMEE 171908

  2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

  4. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/8/20152016
  5. 1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FANTALA)

  6. 2.A POSITION 2016/04/17 AT 1800 UTC:
  7. WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.8 S / 50.8 E
  8. (NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
  9. MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 10 KT

  10. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 7.5/7.5/D 1.0/6 H

  11. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 910 HPA
  12. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 135 KT
  13. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :20 KM

  14. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  15. 28 KT NE: 110 SE: 300 SW: 370 NW: 190
  16. 34 KT NE: 80 SE: 130 SW: 180 NW: 100
  17. 48 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SW: 110 NW: 70
  18. 64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 60

  19. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 300 KM
  20. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

  21. 1.B FORECASTS:
  22. 12H: 2016/04/18 06 UTC: 9.6 S / 49.5 E, MAX WIND=125 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
  23. 24H: 2016/04/18 18 UTC: 9.8 S / 49.0 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
  24. 36H: 2016/04/19 06 UTC: 10.2 S / 49.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  25. 48H: 2016/04/19 18 UTC: 10.8 S / 50.3 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  26. 60H: 2016/04/20 06 UTC: 11.7 S / 52.0 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
  27. 72H: 2016/04/20 18 UTC: 13.0 S / 53.4 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

  28. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
  29. 96H: 2016/04/21 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 55.4 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  30. 120H: 2016/04/22 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 56.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

  31. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  32. T=7.5- CI=7.5

  33. FANTALA MADE HISTORY (THE SWIO ONE'S) THIS EVENING. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION WAS AT 7.5 FROM 13 UTC TO 17 UTC (MET-7 IMAGERY) AND AT 7.0 SINCE 1730 UTC. 3H MEAN RAW DT IS AT 7.5 AT 16 UTC AND 1630 UTC. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS IMPRESSIVE WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC COLD CLOUD MASS. NEAR 15 UTC, THE EYE OF FANTALA PASSED DIRECTLY OVER THE MAIN ISLANDS OF FARQUAHR .. CURRENTLY THE EYEWALL IS PASSING JUST OFF THE SOUTH-WESTERN COASTS OF CERF AND SAINT-PIERRE ISLANDS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE MAIN ISLANDS FARQUAHR.

  34. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS WEST-NORTH-WESTWARDS TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF A HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL CELL LOCATED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, WITH A RIDGE AXIS OVER MADAGASCAR. TOMOROW, THIS CELL IS FORECASTED TO SHIFT PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARD AND LEAVE ROOM FOR A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. FANTALA SHOULD BE LOCATED WITHIN A COL WITH OPPOSITE STEERING FLOWS. SO, FANTALA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MONDAY NIGHT, FANTALA SHOULD STOP ITS NORSTWESTWARD TRACK AND BEGIN A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST UNDER THE NORTHEASTERN STEERING FLOW OF A BUILDING MID-LEVEL NEAR- EQUATORIAL RIDGE.

  35. GIVENT THE ONGOING TREND, THE POINT OF RECURVING HAS AGAIN SHIFT WESTWARDS ... AND IT MAY BE BE POSSIBLE THAT IT COULD EVEN BE MORE TO THE WEST ... CLOSE TO THE COSMOLEDO AND ASTOVE ISLANDS (SEYCHELLES) LOCATED TO THE EAST-SOUTH-EAST OF ALDABRA.

  36. FROM TUESDAY, FANTALA SHOULD CONTINUE ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE TWICE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH-EAST AND AHEAD A WIDE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
  37. THE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN ALWAYS CONDUCIVE UP TO TUESDAY. FANTALA TAKES BENEFIT FROM A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE DIVERGENCE IS VERY GOOD AND SEVERAL FAST SHORT WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD TRANSIT SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND EVEN TEMPORALLY INCREASE THE POLERWARD OUTFLOW. ONLY SELF INDUCED SST COOLING AND EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE COULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.

  38. WEDNESDAY, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, THE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY BECOME LESS FAVOURABLE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASING NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. FANTALA SHOULD BEGIN A WEAKENING PHASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY UP TO THURSDAY.
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劉瑞益@FB|2016-4-18 04:24 | 顯示全部樓層
提示: 作者被禁止或刪除 內容自動屏蔽
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krichard2011|2016-4-18 10:21 | 顯示全部樓層
不知不覺就破紀錄了
這樣說起來 最近幾年幾乎年年都在破紀錄的樣子...
來一張夜間的可見光衛星雲圖
加上今天是農曆12日 月六反射的亮度充足
Fantala 的環流清晰可見
甚至還捕捉到閃電 眼牆對流之劇烈由此可見
20160417.2237.f15.vis.olsvisnghtcomp.19S.FANTALA.x.jpg
CgSU4oWUkAAcd1R.jpg

點評

Bansi 那次是 ISS 太空人 從太空站上面用相機拍下來的畫面  發表於 2016-4-18 22:11
請參考 中央氣象局 索米 NPP 的日夜光影像http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7/knowledge/satellite_topics/nppviirs/Data/20160413doc1/large_npp_2016041301180301L-2.png  發表於 2016-4-18 22:10
繞極衛星取得影像的方式 不是像照相機可以曝光 而是採一部分一部分掃描的方式 掃描的途中碰到閃電就會長這樣 你可以看到影像有一條一條的線  發表於 2016-4-18 22:08
那應該是雜訊,風眼的閃電不是那樣的,參考Bansi。  發表於 2016-4-18 22:01
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krichard2011|2016-4-18 13:52 | 顯示全部樓層
稍早掃出來的底層
Fantal 旋出來的 旋臂相當厚實
但其螺旋雨帶幾乎圍繞在核心的周圍
不排除有進一步發展成外眼牆的可能性
其結構相當完整扎實 且對稱
這種型態在南半球相當少見
20160418.0331.f18.91pct91h91v.19S.FANTALA.150kts.911mb.9.4S.50.1E.95pc.jpg
20160418.0530.METEO7.vis.19S.FANTALA.SHEM.png

點評

是很像沒錯  發表於 2016-4-19 00:34
覺得不像.  發表於 2016-4-18 22:20
這個氣旋看起來似曾相識,像不像2006年澳洲北方卡塔奔利亞灣的莫妮卡氣旋呢?  發表於 2016-4-18 21:35

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +20 收起 理由
Herb + 20

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