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MFR這麼興奮……！:lol
- WTIO30 FMEE 221815
- RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
- TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
- 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 47/8/20152016
- 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FANTALA)
- 2.A POSITION 2016/04/22 AT 1800 UTC:
- WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 57.3 E
- (TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
- MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 3 KT
- 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/S 0.0/12 H
- 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 HPA
- 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
- RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :9 KM
- 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
- 28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 110
- 34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
- 48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
- 64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20
- 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
- 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
- 1.B FORECASTS:
- 12H: 2016/04/23 06 UTC: 12.6 S / 56.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
- 24H: 2016/04/23 18 UTC: 12.3 S / 54.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
- 36H: 2016/04/24 06 UTC: 11.6 S / 53.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
- 48H: 2016/04/24 18 UTC: 10.5 S / 51.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
- 60H: 2016/04/25 06 UTC: 9.3 S / 49.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
- 72H: 2016/04/25 18 UTC: 8.4 S / 47.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
- 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
- 96H: 2016/04/26 18 UTC: 7.2 S / 43.9 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING
- 120H: 2016/04/27 18 UTC: 5.8 S / 41.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING
- 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
- T=4.0, CI=4.5
- THE DRY ENVIRONMENT THAT SURROUNDS FANTALA HAS REDUCED THE SIZE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED OF THE SYSTEM. IT ONLY REMAINS A CDO ABOUT 100 NM OF WIDTH. WITHIN THIS CDO, 85GHZ 1519Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INTENSE CONVECTION RING SURROUNDING BY A 5MN TINY EYE.
- THE BUILDING OF A HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL CELL IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN A LOW/MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE BASIN. THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE PROGRESSIVELY A SOUTHEASTWARD STEERING FLOW. SO, FANTALA IS FORECASTED TO PROGRESSIVELY ACCELERATE TOWARD THE WESTNORTHWEST.
- ON THIS TRACK, FANTALA SHOULD EVOLVE NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERN WIND BELT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SO, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOUD REMAINS WEAK. HOWEVER, FANTALA IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A TRACK THAT IT HAD ALREADY FOLLOWED TWICE...! THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME VERY WEAK ! LAST, ASSOCIATED TO THE LOW/MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, THE SOUTHEASTWARD STEERING FLOW SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY DRY UP FANTALA'S ENVIRONMENT. SO, WITH THESE UNFAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (ESPECIALLY FOR A MIDGET SYSTEM), FANTALA IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN VERY RAPIDLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
預期Fantala將走向它已經走過2次的路徑……！OHC要開始變得非常弱！ |
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