jrchang5

JTWC判定12/00Z升格為熱帶氣旋15P，近中心最大風速達35kts。

15P FIFTEEN
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 12, 2019:

Location: 14.0°S 164.5°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 995 mb

WTPS31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/112051FEB2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   120000Z --- NEAR 14.0S 164.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 164.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 14.0S 165.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 14.1S 165.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z --- 14.3S 165.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 14.7S 166.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 16.3S 166.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 18.3S 166.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 19.8S 164.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 164.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 312 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED HIGH RESOLUTION
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND CONSOLIDATING
CIRCULATION, SURROUNDED BY FLARING CONVECTION AND DEVLEOPING
BANDING FEATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANALYSIS OF 112239Z ASCAT AMBIQUITIES AND
THE ANIMATED VISUAL IMAGERY, WHICH SHOW THE LLCC IN AN AREA
BETWEEN FLARING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
35 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PGTW
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS T2.0 (30 TO 40 KNOTS), SUPPORTED
BY ANALYSIS OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SCATTEROMETER PASS,
WHICH INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF 35 KNOT WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH SOME EMBEDDED 40
KNOT WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES
IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AREA, WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VWS,
STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30 CELSIUS) SSTS.
THE AUTOMATED VWS ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES ARE DEPICTING UP TO 50 KNOTS
OF EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS NOT EVIDENT IN THE
OVERALL SATELLITE DEPICTION OF THE SYSTEM, SO AN ALTERNATIVE
HAND ANALYSIS IS BEING USED TO ESTIMATE THE VWS VALUES AT THIS TIME.
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRACKING RELATIVELY QUICKLY TOWARDS THE EAST BUT
HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND IS NOW MOVING
EAST AT 10 KNOTS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TC 15P WILL MOVE
INTO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY, SLOWLY
DRIFTING GENERALLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, A STR BUILDS
IN SLOWLY FROM THE EAST, ULTIMATELY DRIVING THE SYSTEM ONTO A
SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 120. TC 15P WILL
SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50
KNOTS, AS MODERATE VWS IS OFFSET BY INCREASING OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 48,
DECREASED OUTFLOW AND SLOWLY DECREASING SSTS WILL COMBINE TO WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN
STRONG DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF TC 15P, AND THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF INTERACTION WITH INVEST AREA 93P, CURRENTLY NORTH OF
FIJI. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS AGREE ON THE GENERAL
TRACK OUTLINED ABOVE, BUT SHOW SIGNIFICANT VARIABILITY ON THE TRACK
SPEED AND TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTH, WITH NAVGEM BEING THE
SLOWEST AND WESTERNMOST, WHILE GALWEM IS THE FASTEST AND EASTERNMOST
OUTLIER. THE GFS REPRESENTS THE ALTERNATE SCENARIO, AND TAKES THE
SYSTEM WEST THROUGH TAU 48, THEN RAPIDLY MAKES A NORTH LOOP AND DIVES
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS CENTRAL VANUATU BEFORE A SHARP TURN TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM FUJIWARAS WITH INVEST 93P BY TAU 96. DUE TO
THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR COMPLEX
INTERACTION WITH INVEST 93P, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z. THIS CANCELS AND
SUPERSEEDS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 112100).//
NNNN

FMS則判定12/00Z仍為熱帶低壓，但有機會在今日升格命名。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 120203 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD09F CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 164.1E AT 120000
UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.


DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT. ORGANIZATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500 HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN A
MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
0.35-0.4 WRAP YIELDS DT=2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YIELDING
T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM EASTWARD, SLOWS IT AND THEN SOUTHWARD WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR TD09F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24
HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 13.9S 164.9E MOV E AT 04KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC 14.0S 164.9E SLOW MOV WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC 14.1S 165.0E SLOW MOV WITH 50 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 14.3S 165.2E SLOW MOV WITH 50 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 120800 UTC.

jrchang5

FMS判定12/09Z升格為澳式一級熱帶氣旋，並命名為Oma。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 121035 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OMA CENTRE 989HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7S 164.8E AT 120900 UTC.
POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 4 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT. ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE LAST 3-6
HOURS WITH PRIMARY BAND TRYING TO WRAP ONTO LLCC. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE TO
HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AND GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. SYSTEM IS SLOW MOVING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELCIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6-07 WRAP YIELDS DT=3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED
ON DT. THUS, YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 122100 UTC 13.9S 165.3E MOV ESE AT 03 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 130900 UTC 14.2S 165.4E MOV SE AT 02 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 132100 UTC 14.4S 165.7E MOV SE AT 02 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 140900 UTC 14.8S 166.1E MOV SE AT 02 KT WITH 50 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OMA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 121400 UTC.

jrchang5

FMS判定12/21Z已升格為澳式C2，近中心最大風速達50kts，發展較預期迅速。

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 122330 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OMA CATEGORY 2 CENTRE 983HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1S
165.8E AT 122100 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTH EAST AT ABOUT 5
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 50 KNOTS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE OMA.

12/18Z預測路徑圖

FMS 13/00Z正報，預測24小時後將達到強度巔峰，暫時上望60kts。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 130207 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OMA CENTRE 983HPA CATEGORY2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 165.8E AT
130000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR/VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT


EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT. ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH PRIMARY BAND WRAPPING AROUND LLCC. SYSTEM LIES IN A
MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AND GOOD
OUTFLOW. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.85 WRAP
YIELDS DT=3.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YIELDING
T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC 14.8S 166.0E SLOW MOV WITH 55 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 15.1S 166.3E SLOW MOV WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC 15.6S 166.7E SLOW MOV WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC 16.2S 166.8E SLOW MOV WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OMA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 130800 UTC.

jrchang5

JTWC判定15/06Z近中心最大風速升至65kts，已達辛普森颶風等級的C1。

15P OMA
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 15, 2019:

Location: 15.0°S 165.1°E
Maximum Winds: 65 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 mb

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 014
WTPS31 PGTW 150900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 15.0S 165.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 165.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.1S 164.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.3S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.5S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.0S 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.2S 163.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 19.9S 161.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 21.1S 159.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 165.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

FMS則判定同一時間近中心最大風速升至60kts，已達澳式C2上限，預計將升格為澳式三級強烈熱帶氣旋(澳式C3)。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A15 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 150829 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OMA CENTRE 975HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 164.7E AT 150600 UTC.
POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 3 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 60 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 220 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 170 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 220 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH PRIMARY BAND CONTINUING TO WRAP INTO
LLCC.
SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND GOOD OUTFLOW. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED EMBD IN MG YIELDS DT=4.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON
MET.
THUS, YIELDING T4.0/4.0/S0.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 151800 UTC 15.1S 164.2E MOV WSW AT 02 KT WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC 15.4S 163.9E MOV WSW AT 02 KT WITH 65 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 15.7S 163.6E MOV SW AT 02 KT WITH 70 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 16.4S 163.4E MOV SW AT 02 KT WITH 70 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OMA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 141400 UTC.

jrchang5

FMS判定16/06Z升格為澳式C3，近中心最大風速達65kts。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A18 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 160755 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE OMA CENTRE 976HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 163.8E AT
160600 UTC.
POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 3 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 65 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 080 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT AND ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD WITH EYE DISCERBABLE
ON HIMAWARI SATELLITE VIS/EIR IMAGERY.
SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
GOOD OUTFLOW. SYSTEM LIES ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
ANTI-CYCLONE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING IT WESTWARD.
SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON OW EYE AND MG SURROUND
YIELDS DT=4.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT.
THUS, YIELDING T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 15.4S 163.3E MOV W AT 03 KT WITH 70 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 15.8S 163.0E MOV SW AT 02 KT WITH 75 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC 16.7S 162.9E MOV SSW AT 03 KT WITH 80 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 180600 UTC 17.9S 162.3E MOV SSW AT 04 KT WITH 80 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OMA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 161400 UTC.

霧峰追風者

FMS 稍早強度減弱澳式C2，JTWC 減弱為熱帶風暴，逐漸南下。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A24 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 171343 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OMA CENTRE 984HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 164.2E AT 171200 UTC.
POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 3 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 55 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 060 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH PRIMARY BAND TRYING TO WRAP ONTO LLCC. DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED OMA IN THE LAST 3-6 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES IN
A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE.
SYSTEM REMAIN SLOW MOVING. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED BAND WITH 0.7 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDS
DT=3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT.
THUS, YIELDING T3.0/4.0/W0.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 180000 UTC 17.2S 163.9E MOV SSW AT 06 KT WITH 55 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 181200 UTC 18.5S 163.4E MOV SSW AT 06 KT WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 190000 UTC 19.8S 162.8E MOV SSW AT 06 KT WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 191200 UTC 20.9S 162.4E MOV SSW AT 06 KT WITH 50 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OMA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 172000 UTC.

WTPS31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 023   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   171200Z --- NEAR 16.3S 164.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 164.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 17.2S 164.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 18.4S 163.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 19.8S 162.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 20.9S 162.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 22.9S 161.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 25.8S 161.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 30.3S 164.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 164.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 244 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TC OMA HAS, FOR THE MOST PART, MAINTAINED ITS EXPANSIVE
FEEDER BANDS WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF A
LARGE, RAGGED BUT DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
CIRCULATION IN THE EIR LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A MICROWAVE LLC
IN THE 171034Z AMSU IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55KTS AND T4.0/65KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES AND
REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH
A STRONG EQUATORWARD BIAS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AT 27-28
CELSIUS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
EAST. AFTER TAU 72, TC 15P WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE
SOUTH THEN SOUTHEASTWARD. VWS IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AND ALLOW A SLOW
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN
TO 50 KNOTS BY TAU 96. BY TAU 120, TC OMA WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION CHARACTERIZED BY AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. NUMERIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, AFTERWARD THE CONSENSUS
MEMBERS SPREAD OUT SIGNIFICANTLY. ONE NOTABLE OUTLIER IS ECMWF THAT
TRACKS THE VORTEX DUE WESTWARD AFTER TAU 72. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 48 THEN LOW
CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS
26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.//
NNNN

jrchang5

FMS判定19/00Z再度升格為澳式三級強烈熱帶氣旋，近中心最大風速達65kts；JTWC亦判定同一時間近中心最大風速回升至75kts，再度重回辛普森颶風分級的C1。部分數值預報認為未來路徑可能趨近澳洲東岸，與JTWC預報路徑歧異，此仍有待繼續觀察。


FMS：

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A30 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 190237 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE OMA CENTRE 974HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5S 162.5E AT
190000 UTC.
POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 65 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTER
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

CONVECTION PERSISTENT WITH PRIMARY BANDS WRAPPING ONTO LLCC WITH SYSTEM
INTENSIFYING WITH A CLEAR EYE VISIBLE. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. SYSTEM STEERED SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON WMG EYE EMBD DG WITH DT=4.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED
ON DT.
THUS, YIELDING T4.5/4.5/W1.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 191200 UTC 20.2S 161.9E MOV SW AT 05 KT WITH 70 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 200000 UTC 21.0S 161.3E MOV SW AT 05 KT WITH 75 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 201200 UTC 21.8S 160.6E MOV SW AT 05 KT WITH 70 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 210000 UTC 22.8S 159.8E MOV SW AT 05 KT WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OMA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 190800 UTC.

JTWC：

WTPS31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 029   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 162.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 162.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 20.5S 161.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 21.3S 161.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 22.1S 160.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 23.3S 159.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 25.3S 158.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 26.9S 159.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z --- 27.8S 162.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 162.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 257 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO
CONSOLIDATE AS CONVECTION INTENSIFIES AND RAIN BANDS WRAP INTO A
RAGGED EYE FEATURE SURROUNDING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A
182303Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE WITH OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF PGTW 4.5
(77 KNOTS) AND KNES 5.0 (90 KNOTS), THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS RAISED
TO 75 KNOTS AS IT ENTERS A PHASE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION, BUT THE
PERSISTENTLY RAGGED STRUCTURE OF THE EYE AND CONVECTION WILL SERVE
AS A LIMITING FACTOR. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 15P IS UNDER
LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS PARTLY OFFSET BY
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER
FAVORABLE (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TC 15P
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 72, IT WILL ROUND THE
STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE ALONG AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMING SSTS AND INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL
FUEL AN INTENSIFICATION TO 85 KTS AT TAU 24. AFTERWARD, INCREASING
VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL WEAKEN THE CYCLONE TO 50 KNOTS BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AROUND TAU 96, TC 15P WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 120 WILL BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL
AS A STORM-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48, BUT
SPREADS OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
ACCOUNTS FOR THIS WITH A SLOWING OF FORWARD MOTION BEYOND TAU 72.
SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS INCLUDE THE ECMI, WHICH INDICATES A TRACK OVER
EASTERN AUSTRALIA AND EGRI, WHICH TURNS THE SYSTEM FAR TO THE EAST.
THUS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU
48 AND LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
190000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND
200300Z.//
NNNN

GFS與EC系集：

jrchang5

強度於19/06Z至19/18Z達到巔峰，FMS判定近中心最大風速70kts，中心最低氣壓974hpa；JTWC則判定75kts、965hpa。
20/00Z，FMS已降回澳式C2，JTWC亦將最大風速調降至70kts，顯示巔峰已過。
茲附上19/18Z巔峰時點之報文資料，留個紀錄。

FMS：

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A33 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 192008 UTC.  SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE OMA CENTRE 974HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3S 162.0E AT 191800 UTC.  POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 06 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 70 KNOTS.   EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTER  EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT  EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.  DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTENT WITH BANDS WRAPPING AROUND LARGE EYE. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. SYSTEM STEERED SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THGE EAST. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON OW EYE EMBD IN OW YIELDS DT=3.5. MET=4.0 AND PT=4.0. FT BASED ON PT. THUS, YIELDING T4.0/4.5/D0.5/24HRS.  FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 200600 UTC 21.6S 161.1E MOV SW AT 05 KT WITH 70 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 201800 UTC 22.3S 160.3E MOV SW AT 05 KT WITH 55 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE  OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 210600 UTC 23.2S 159.5E MOV SW AT 05 KT WITH 65 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 211800 UTC 24.2S 158.8E MOV SW AT 11 KT WITH 65 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE  THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OMA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 200200 UTC.

JTWC：

15P OMA
As of 18:00 UTC Feb 19, 2019:

Location: 21.1°S 161.5°E
Maximum Winds: 75 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 965 mb

EC、GFS系集：