霧峰追風者

  強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號：11-20182019 ( 18 S )
名稱：Idai

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2019 年 03 月 02 日 13 時
升格熱低日期：2019 年 03 月 04 日 21 時
JTWC升格日期:2019 年 03 月 09 日 14 時
命名日期　　：2019 年 03 月 10 日 08 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 03 月 00 日 00 時
登陸地點　　：莫三比克 索法拉省

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最大風速：
法國留尼旺氣象局 ( MFR )：105 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：110 kts ( Cat.3 )
海平面最低氣壓：940 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
無

  擾動編號資料  
97S.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-16.6S-41.3E


以上資料來自：MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

Meow

美國撤編後法國突然編熱低了。

30kt 1003hPa

老農民版夜神月

這是今年第幾次美國跟該地方負責機構嚴重不同調了?

WTIO30 FMEE 041239
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/11/20182019
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11
2.A POSITION 2019/03/04 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 37.2 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SW: 90 NW: 80
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/05 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 36.5 E, VENT MAX= 000 , OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/03/05 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 000 , OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 11 HAS MAINLY BEEN MAINTAINED IN CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS NEAR
THE CENTRE, ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDING OVER THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE LATEST INTENSITY ESTIMATES DO NOT ALLOW TO
VALIDATE THE 35KTS THRESHOLD, AS SATELLITE WIND MEASUREMENTS REACH
THIS THRESHOLD ONLY LOCALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTOR. SO SYSTEM 11
WILL ARRIVE ON COAST WITHOUT BEING BAPTIZED.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 IS EXPECTED TO LAND IN THE COMING HOURS ON THE
MOZAMBICAN COASTS, WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30KT, REACHING THE 35KT
THRESHOLD IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTOR AT SEA. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS QUITE STRONG, BRINGING REMARKABLE
PRECIPITATION ON THE LANDING ZONE NEAR THE CITY OF QUELIMANE ON THE
MOZAMBICAN COASTS.
FOLLOWING THE IMMINENT LANDING OF THE SYSTEM, THIS IS THE LAST
WARNING ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM BY LA REUNION RSMC.=

然而美國大約半日前早已撤編...

老農民版夜神月

撤編半日後相同系統再度重編
應該是相隔的時間不長
中心系統也非常明顯是同一個
沒改編成新擾動99S而是直接沿用舊的98S


而我也算是再度錯過而又少了一個可以拿擾動積分的機會

jrchang5

JTWC已於04/18Z評級Low。
有模式預報此系統登陸莫三比克後，有機會再度折返莫三比克海峽，此部分仍有變數，有待繼續觀察。

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
17.3S 37.6E, APPROXIMATELY 562 NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW
(5-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EQUATORIAL DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. A
RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH
STRONG WINDS WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT, BUT THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER
LAND. IN THE LONG TERM, INVEST 98S MAY TRACK BACK OVER THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

jrchang5

JTWC 06/0130Z提升評級至Medium。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION(INVEST 98S)PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.8S 37.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 38.0E, APPROXIMATELY 539 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 051900Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH PERSISTENT FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING DESPITE BEING OVER
LAND. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH LOW (5-15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, SUPPORTIVE EQUATORIAL DIFFLUENCE AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS). MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT 98S WILL SLOWLY TRACK TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 48-72
HOURS AND EMERGE OVER WATER. THE MODELS REMAIN SPLIT ON THE TIMING
AND INTENSITY, WITH NAVGEM DEPICTING A MORE RAPID TIMELINE AS 98S
MOVES OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN
OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

霧峰追風者

陸上低壓11號，有機會在本周末出海發展。

Overland Depression n°11-20182019 :
Position at 09UTC : 15.1S / 36.7E
Movement : North-North-Westwards 5 kt
Maximum 10 min mean winds : 20 kt
Central MSLP : 1002 hPa
The associated low level vorticity remains well defined on visible imagery despite the landmass
interaction. The upper level environment remains favorable with good divergence and low deep
vertical windshear. The latest available guidance still bring back the low level vorticiy associated
with this system over the Mozambique channel before Sunday (still some uncertainty about this
timing that should occur between Friday night and Sunday morning). This generally
east-south-easterly track should be steered by the low to mid level monsoon surge. The system is
expected to benefit from good environmental conditions once it will get back overseas. However
there is still the possibility that the system failed to intensify if it remains close to the coasts.
From Saturday, the risk that this system becomes a tropical storm over the Mozambique

霧峰追風者

JTWC 21Z發布TCFA。

WTXS21 PGTW 082200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT(INVEST 98S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
185 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.2S 37.5E TO 20.1S 42.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 081800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.3S 37.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.6S 36.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3S 37.6E, APPROXIMATELY
287 NM NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 081908Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOW A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING.  UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
DEPICTS FAVORABLE (05-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH NEAR
RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM
(30 TO 31 CELSIUS) AND SUPPORT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SURROUNDING
WATER. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 98S WILL TRACK
BACK OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN THE NEXT 18-36 HOURS AND
INTENSIFY RAPIDLY TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
092200Z.
//
NNNN