Meow

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老農民版夜神月

JTWC在18S(Idai)中心登陸莫三比克後發出FW

Tropical Cyclone  18S (Idai) Warning #24 Final Warning

lssued at 15/0300Z

WTXS32 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 024   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   150000Z --- NEAR 19.6S 34.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 34.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 19.0S 33.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 18.6S 32.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 18.2S 31.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 34.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 142252Z SSMIS GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A WEAKENING
SYSTEM WITH A SMALL, RAGGED EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED ON
THE SMALL EYE IN EIR IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 90 KNOTS DUE TO THE DIMINISHING EYEWALL
CONVECTION AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
INDICATES MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH LOW (10-
15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAKENING POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, TC 18S HAS MADE LANDFALL AND WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN. TC 18S HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 12 BUT DIVERGES
SLIGHTLY AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY WEAKENS OVER LAND. OVERALL, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT, WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 36. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 22 FEET. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.

jrchang5

MFR判定15/06Z轉為陸上低壓，並於12Z發出最終報。

ZCZC 282
WTIO30 FMEE 151220
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/11/20182019
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 11 (EX-IDAI)
2.A POSITION 2019/03/15 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 33.5 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY THREE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE:  SE: 260 SW:  NW:
34 KT NE:  SE: 70 SW:  NW:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): NIL
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/16 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 32.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, EX-IDAI HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE INLAND WHILE
RAPIDLY WEAKENING. IT SHOULD KEEP IT WEST-NORTH-WEST TRACK AND REACH
THE BORDER WITH THE ZIMBABWE BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. EVEN IF THE
WINDS WILL DECAY SIGNIFICANTLY, THE REMAINS OF THE CIRCULATION ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS, BRINGING HEAVY RAINS ON THE
ZIMBABWE AND THE BORDER AREA WITH MOZAMBIQUE UP TO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LAST WARNING ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM.=
NNNN

蜜露

Idai 氣旋登陸了莫桑比克 , 這是近11年來登陸最強的氣旋在該國.


莫桑比克大城市Beira 遭到重創 .  報導說 Beira城市 有90%房屋摧毀

氣旋引發了風暴潮和莫桑比克的水庫潰壩在莫桑比克、馬達加斯加、南非、辛巴威等國都受創，已經罹難了300人






莫桑比克總統看到浮游屍體，加上潰壩，死亡人數可能已有千人。

蜜露

莫桑比克的氣旋並不稀有,也就是颱風.


主要是影響48h 東非國家造成水庫潰堤因素

莫桑比克、辛巴威，已經超過400人死亡

霧峰追風者

熱帶氣旋伊代(Idai)重創莫三比克、辛巴威和馬拉威，根據地方官員和聯合國表示，有多達數十萬人急需食物、飲水和庇護所，截至30日，至少有746人在風暴、洪水和暴雨襲擊中喪生。

在莫三比克方面：

伊代是14日在莫三比克港口城市貝拉(Beira)附近登陸，帶來強風豪雨，造成兩條主要河流潰堤，淹沒整個村莊，屍體漂浮在水中。

死亡人數：501人

受傷人數：1523人

受損或遭摧毀房舍：9萬9317處

受影響災民：185萬人

莫三比克遭熱帶氣旋肆虐2週後，莫國衛生部1日發布的最新報告指出，全國爆出至少1052起霍亂病例，遠高於4天前的139起。

彭博報導指出，莫國衛生部1日證實霍亂疫情正急遽擴散，平均每天有超過200起新增病例，總病例破千。其中，尤以受風災重創的貝拉市疫情最為嚴重，據估計，全國1052起病例中，貝拉市就占959起，且光是最近24小時內，就接到247起病例。衛生部表示，儘管患病人數激增，但目前全境只有1人死亡。

「世界衛生組織」（WHO）表示，約90萬劑口服霍亂疫苗預計在1日送抵受創最深的貝拉市，莫國當局將於2日展開大規模疫苗接種，防止疫情繼續擴大。

在辛巴威方面：

伊代是在16日來襲，造成一片汪洋，淹沒了馬尼馬尼(Chimanimani)地區。

死亡人數：當地政府說185人，聯合國說259人

受傷人數：200人

流離失所者：1萬6千戶

受影響災民：25萬人

在馬拉威方面：

在伊代來襲之前就已降下豪雨，造成較低漥地區淹水。暴風雨過後，大雨仍持續發威，使成千上萬人的痛苦雪上加霜。

死亡人數：60人

受傷人數：672人

流離失所者：1萬9328戶

受影響災民：86萬8895人