|
|
JTWC 首報上望"四級颶風"，後期近巔峰影響莫三比克。
WTXS32 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/082151ZMAR2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 17.0S 40.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 40.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 17.1S 40.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 17.3S 41.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 17.6S 41.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 17.9S 41.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 18.3S 39.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 18.8S 37.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 19.3S 34.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 40.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 312 NM
NORTH OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 090338Z
WINDSAT 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE PROVIDES CLEAR EVIDENCE THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED WHILE TRACKING BACK OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL, AND SHOWS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A
WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THIS WINDSAT
IMAGE AS WELL AS ON A 090618Z ASCAT-B AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS MULTIPLE 25-30 KNOT WINDS WITH
AN ISOLATED 30-35 KNOT WIND OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT. HOWEVER, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM FMEE AND PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A JET OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR, AS
WELL AS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST (28-29C). TC 18S IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH BUT IS FORECAST TO SLOW AND TURN
SOUTHEASTWARD BY TAU 36 AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH. THIS COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TAU
48 LEADING TO A SLOW OR POSSIBLY QUASISTATIONARY TRACK MOTION. AFTER
TAU 48, THE STR WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE AND TC
18S WILL ACCELERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD MOZAMBIQUE, MAKING
LANDFALL NEAR TAU 108. DESPITE THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE EARLY TAUS DUE TO THE COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND
IMPROVED AGREEMENT AFTER TAU 48. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
(HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 12 DUE TO THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND
WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS BY TAU 96. AFTER LANDFALL,
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND
100900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) FINAL WARNING (WTXS31
PGTW). THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 082200).//
NNNN 
|
|
