1313 皮瓦(Pewa) 減為TD 默默落幕

jwpk9899 · 2013-8-16 23:03

CPHC將91C升格為01C 並認為增強為熱帶風暴
而且呢~樓上有沒有發現命名Pewa了(穿過來也許叫''佩瓦'')
預估明晚就有機會進入西太平洋了

Meow · 2013-8-16 23:04

J18 發表於 2013-8-16 22:48
升格熱帶風暴
第一報路徑圖!

按 CPHC 預測，週日 00Z 與 06Z 之間會進入西北太平洋，理論上 JMA 會先在 00Z 就發報。

名稱會維持 Pewa，國際編號可能是 1312 或 1313，端看潭美是否在週日以前形成。推測 CWB 會譯為「佩瓦」或「佩娃」。

Meow · 2013-8-16 23:07

是這邊的週日中午前後跨過換日線，大家別再搞錯了哦。

WTPA44 PHFO 161456
TCDCP4
TROPICAL STORM PEWA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012013
500 AM HST FRI AUG 16 2013
A BALL OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FAR SOUTHWEST OF HAWAII YESTERDAY EVENING...AND HAS
PERSISTED LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT CLASSIFYING THE SYSTEM AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 2.5/35 KT
FROM PHFO AND PGTW AND 2.0/30 KT FROM SAB. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT
IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE APPEARANCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO
35 KT...AND ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON THE FIRST TROPICAL
CYCLONE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC BASIN IN THE
2013 SEASON...TROPICAL STORM PEWA.
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/11 KT...WITH THE STORM LOCATED ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO CHANGE MINIMALLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...KEEPING THE
DEPRESSION MOVING ON A TRAJECTORY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
TVCE...AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WITH
TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWING INCREASING SPREAD BEYOND DAY 3.
THE STORM IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING...CHARACTERIZED BY LIGHT WIND SHEAR AND WARM SSTS...
WITH PEWA/S IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW ALOFT SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A DISTURBANCE ABOUT 550 MILES TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. WATER
TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO SUPPORT A STRONG SYSTEM...WITH THE ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR BEING AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN
DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...AS THE STORM ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE. THEREFORE...A STEADY INTENSIFICATION TREND IS INDICATED IN
THE SHORT TERM...WITH A SLOW WEAKENING TREND COMMENCING BY DAY 3...
WHICH IS LINE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/1500Z 10.2N 173.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 10.8N 175.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 11.4N 177.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 12.2N 179.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 13.0N 177.8E 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 15.0N 172.5E 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 17.0N 167.0E 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 19.0N 162.0E 35 KT 40 MPH
$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD

複製代碼

logdog · 2013-8-16 23:32

過換日線要加一天
還有外面那個颱風遺照館
可能要換一下1312或1313的名字喔

Meow · 2013-8-17 10:41

JMA 開始關注 Pewa 並發佈 SW。

WWJP25 RJTD 170000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 170000.
WARNING VALID 180000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
EXPECTED NORTHERLY WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS
BOUNDED BY 15N 175E 17N 180E 07N 180E 09N 175E 15N 175E
FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
...
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM PEWA : SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING (WTPA24 PHFO).

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Meow · 2013-8-17 11:02

http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/kishou/know/kurashi/tenkizu.html

「全般海上警報の種類と記号」完整介紹了，並要知道舉凡 W、GW、SW、TW 也適用未來風力。

J18 · 2013-8-17 16:08

48小時後會出現在日本氣象廳的天氣圖裡!

CX723-A330 · 2013-8-17 16:10

本帖最後由 CX723-A330 於 2013-8-17 17:05 編輯

Pewa現已越過東經175度
最快在今日晚上會越洋到西太

現在強度為每分鐘85 km/h,為一熱帶風暴/輕度颱風
入西太後應可以繼續增強到強烈熱帶風暴/輕颱上限
另外,CPHC剛剛把Pewa的預測強度升為Cat. 1了
(P.S:這尤特真是頑強,在中國陸地三天還能生存到...)