1313 皮瓦(Pewa) 減為TD 默默落幕

t02436 · 2013-8-18 08:07

Pewa在東太的最後身影

大概在4-6小時就即將跨線
感覺後頭的CP90好像比較強...

Meow · 2013-8-18 10:37

本帖最後由 Meow 於 2013-8-18 10:43 編輯

一旦 06Z 時候 Pewa 進入西北太平洋，JMA 將編號 1313 並直接對 Pewa 發佈 TW，即預期 24 小時以內可能增強為 TY（相當於 CWB 的中度颱風）。

WWJP25 RJTD 180000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 180000.
WARNING VALID 190000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
EXPECTED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 65 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS
BOUNDED BY 17N 174E 17N 180E 14N 180E 14N 174E 17N 174E
FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 65 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS
BOUNDED BY 14N 174E 14N 180E 12N 180E 12N 174E 14N 174E
FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
...
REMARKS.
...
TROPICAL STORM PEWA : SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING (WTPA24 PHFO).

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Meow · 2013-8-18 10:54

CPHC 發佈最後報文，下一報 JMA 接手，發佈今年第 13 號颱風。

WTPA44 PHFO 180230
TCDCP4

TROPICAL STORM PEWA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012013
500 PM HST SAT AUG 17 2013

AFTER A BURST OF ORGANIZATION EARLIER TODAY...THE DEEP CONVECTION
AROUND PEWA HAS ONCE AGAIN BECOME MORE RAGGED THIS AFTERNOON...AND
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME CONSTRICTED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF
THE STORM. THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE ONCE AGAIN
3.5 ACROSS THE BOARD...SO THE INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 55 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/11. THE GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED AROUND A FORECAST TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AS PEWA
REMAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL HIGH THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME MIXED SIGNALS THAT MAKE THE INTENSITY
FORECAST QUITE CHALLENGING. THE CIMSS ANALYSES INDICATE THAT PEWA IS
STARTING TO FEEL INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR FROM THE UPPER
LOW DROPPING SOUTH NEAR 20N 174E. THERE IS PROBABLY ALSO SOME
INTERACTION OCCURING WITH THE DISTURBANCE A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE
NORTHEAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CYCLONE IS NOW ENTERING A VAST
AREA OF HIGHER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND WARMER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...REACHING 29.5C ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK. THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING THAT IN ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO...THE UPPER LOW WILL
START TO WEAKEN AND PULL NORTHWESTWARD...BUT NOT FAST ENOUGH TO
RELIEVE THE SYSTEM FROM INCREASING SHEAR. THUS...ANY INTENSIFICATION
SHOULD BE GRADUAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE IT HALTS. THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY INTENSIFICATION COULD RESUME IN THE LONGER RANGE
IF PEWA CAN OVERCOME THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES AWAY FAR ENOUGH FOR ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO BUILD OVER THE
SYSTEM...AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS AND NAVGEM. THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE
STUBBORN WITH THE UPPER LOW IN PEWA/S PATH...WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY
BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.

PEWA IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE BY 06Z...
AND THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER. THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY THE RSMC
TOKYO. FOR U.S. INTERESTS...SEE THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE
U.S. NWS WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE GUAM AND DOD WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 11.8N 179.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 12.8N 178.8E 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 13.9N 176.7E 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 15.2N 174.6E 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 16.5N 172.2E 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 19.3N 168.0E 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 21.9N 163.8E 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 24.9N 159.3E 75 KT 85 MPH

$$

FORECASTER R BALLARD

CX723-A330 · 2013-8-18 11:34

本帖最後由 CX723-A330 於 2013-8-18 11:55 編輯

Pewa的雲開始與90C接觸了
我認為Pewa有可能有入西太後與90C合併
風速到了100km/h,
雖然看起來Pewa比較弱,
但是底層明顯是Pewa比較好,強對流開始流入中心

J18 · 2013-8-18 14:41

本帖最後由 J18 於 2013-8-18 15:08 編輯

離西太只剩一小步!

丹尼兒 · 2013-8-18 15:19

本帖最後由丹尼兒於 2013-8-18 15:44 編輯

下午14時已進入西太小j已針對01C發報了宣布成為今年第13號颱風

報文圖片如下:

** WTPQ21 RJTD 180600 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME  STS 1313 PEWA (1313)
ANALYSIS
PSTN  180600UTC 12.0N 180.0E FAIR
MOVE  WNW 10KT
PRES  994HPA
MXWD  050KT
GUST  070KT
30KT  120NM
FORECAST
24HF  190600UTC 13.8N 175.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE  WNW 11KT
PRES  980HPA
MXWD  055KT
GUST  080KT
48HF  200600UTC 15.3N 172.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE  WNW 10KT
PRES  975HPA
MXWD  060KT
GUST  085KT
72HF  210600UTC 17.0N 168.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE  WNW 10KT
PRES  975HPA
MXWD  060KT
GUST  085KT =