Meow

這報下修預期到90kt，因為要登陸馬達加斯加。

ben811018

預期可達125KTS
中心緊貼著馬達加斯加沿海移動..

Meow

如同氣象機構，數值預報也已達成共識，認定3天內登陸馬達加斯加東北部，惟巔峰強度仍難以評斷。

Meow

法國氣象局的奇葩預報，在海上就成了陸上低壓。

1. WTIO30 FMEE 040621
   
2. 
   
3. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
   
4. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
   
5. 
   
6. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/6/20162017
   
7. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ENAWO)
   
8. 
   
9. 2.A POSITION 2017/03/04 AT 0600 UTC:
   
10. WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6 S / 56.6 E
    
11. (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
    
12. MOVEMENT : SOUTH 2 KT
    
13. 
    
14. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H
    
15. 
    
16. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
    
17. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
    
18. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM
    
19. 
    
20. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
    
21. 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 170 NW: 190
    
22. 34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 130 NW: 130
    
23. 
    
24. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
    
25. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
    
26. 
    
27. 1.B FORECASTS:
    
28. 12H: 2017/03/04 18 UTC: 14.0 S / 56.4 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
    
29. 24H: 2017/03/05 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 55.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
30. 36H: 2017/03/05 18 UTC: 14.6 S / 54.7 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
31. 48H: 2017/03/06 06 UTC: 14.7 S / 53.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
    
32. 60H: 2017/03/06 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 51.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
    
33. 72H: 2017/03/07 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 50.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
    
34. 
    
35. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
    
36. 96H: 2017/03/08 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 47.6 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
    
37. 120H: 2017/03/09 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 46.4 E, MAX WIND=000 , OVERLAND DEPRESSION
    
38. 
    
39. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
    
40. T=CI=3.5-
    
41. 
    
42. ACCORDING TO THE LAST MW DATA SSMIS DOF 0257Z AND GMI OF 0316Z, THE LOW LEVEL ORGANISATION HAS CLEARLY IMPORVED, AND CLASSICAL IMAGERY SHOWS A CURVED BAND PATTERN OF MORE THAN A HALF TOUR, WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALSO LOCATED IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CERCLE. CONFIRMED BY THE CIMSS THE EASTERN CONSTRAINT HAS WEAKENED, BUT REMAIN MORERATE(20KT AT 03Z).
    
43. 
    
44. ENAWO STARTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE TROPICAL RIDGE THAT DROVE THE TRACK. THE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SIMILAR DURING THE FOLLOWING HOURS. ON LAST NIGHT, THE TRACK SHOULD RESUME WESTWARDS AS A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTH AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY EXTEND SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. AT LONG RANGE, THUS STEERING FLOW MAY DECAY, INDUCING A MORE PARABOLIC TRACK TOWARDS SOUTH. WITHIN THE LATEST AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, THE WESTWARD SHIFT TREND CONTINUES (GFS).THUS A LANDFALL OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR APPEARS TO BE LIKELY. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOCATION AND THE TIMING OF THE LANDING, WITH VERY DIFFERENT TRACK SPEED. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS.
    
45. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAIN VERY GOOD IN THE WEST PART AND ALSO IN THE SOUTH PART, SO THE SYSTEM GOES ON INTENSIFYING, AS THE EASTERN CONSTRAINT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN TODAY
    
46. 
    
47. BY THE END OF THE WEEK END, THE UPPER CONSTRAINT MAY DECREASE, WITH STILL A STRONG POTENTIAL, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY QUICKER. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY BEFORE MONDAY AND COME CLOSER TO THE NEXT LEVEL BEFORE LANDFALLING.

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krichard2011

看來有正在建立CDO的趨勢 但底層仍有待加強
看似仍受到高層偏東風的影響
整體型態左右不太對稱 高層雲系被吹到西邊
目前還進較佳的區域比較靠近馬達加斯加近海
隨著Enawo往西接近馬達加斯加 環境才會比較轉好
現階段只能看他有沒有機會在登陸或接近陸地前快速增強
順便附上一張 METEOSAT-8 Natural Color 與 VIS可見光波段 12Z的合成圖




補充:
JTWC 升格Cat.1 (65 KT)
MFR 重新上望 ITC

1. SH, 09, 2017030412,   , BEST,   0, 133S,  568E,  65,  983, TY,  50, NEQ,   25,   25,   25,   25, 1006,  200,  25,   0,   0,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,      ENAWO, M,

複製代碼

1. WTIO30 FMEE 041212
   
2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
   
3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
   
4. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/6/20162017
   
5. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ENAWO)
   
6. 2.A POSITION 2017/03/04 AT 1200 UTC:
   
7. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6 S / 56.6 E
   
8. (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
   
9. MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY
   
10. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H
    
11. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
    
12. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
    
13. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM
    
14. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
    
15. 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 170 NW: 190
    
16. 34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 130 NW: 130
    
17. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
    
18. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
    
19. 1.B FORECASTS:
    
20. 12H: 2017/03/05 00 UTC: 13.8 S / 56.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
    
21. 24H: 2017/03/05 12 UTC: 14.0 S / 55.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
    
22. 36H: 2017/03/06 00 UTC: 14.2 S / 54.1 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
23. 48H: 2017/03/06 12 UTC: 14.6 S / 52.3 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
24. 60H: 2017/03/07 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 50.8 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
25. 72H: 2017/03/07 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 49.4 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
    
26. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
    
27. 96H: 2017/03/08 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 47.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
    
28. 120H: 2017/03/09 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 46.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
    
29. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
    
30. T=CI=3.5-
    
31. ACCORDING TO THE LAST CLASSICAL IMAGERY, DEEP CONVECTION IS ORGANIZED
    
32. IN A LARGE IRREGULAR CDO, AS DEEP CONVECTION ALSO LOCATED IN THE
    
33. EASTERN SEMI-CERCLE.MW DATA GMI OF 03H13Z AND AMSR2 OF 09H06Z ARE QUITE
    
34. SIMILARE, AS THE INTENSIFICATION SEEMS TO MARK A PAUSE.
    
35. CONFIRMED BY THE CIMSS THE EASTERN CONSTRAINT REMAINS MORERATE(20KT
    
36. AT 09Z).
    
37. ENAWO IS NOW QUITE STATIONARY. ON NEXT NIGHT THE TRACK SHOULD RESUME
    
38. WESTWARDS AS A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTH AFRICA
    
39. IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY EXTEND SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR.
    
40. AT LONG RANGE, THUS STEERING FLOW MAY DECAY, INDUCING A MORE
    
41. PARABOLIC TRACK TOWARDS SOUTH. WITHIN THE LATEST AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
    
42. GUIDANCE, THE WESTWARD SHIFT TREND CONTINUES (GFS).THUS A LANDFALL
    
43. OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR APPEARS TO BE LIKELY. HOWEVER
    
44. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOCATION AND THE TIMING OF THE
    
45. LANDING, WITH VERY DIFFERENT TRACK SPEED. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS A
    
46. COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS.
    
47. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAIN VERY GOOD IN THE WEST PART, SO THE
    
48. SYSTEM SHOULD GOES ON INTENSIFYING PROGRESSIVELY, DESPITE THE
    
49. PERSISTANCE OF THE EASTERN CONSTRAINT FOR THE NEXT HOURS.
    
50. BY THE END OF THE WEEK END, THE UPPER CONSTRAINT MAY DECREASE, WITH
    
51. STILL A STRONG POTENTIAL, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY QUICKER. IT IS
    
52. EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY BEFORE MONDAY AND MAY
    
53. REACH THE LOWER STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE CLOSE TO
    
54. LANDFALLING.

複製代碼

Meow

這時候了GFS還是預測899百帕……

krichard2011

對流發展跟昨天東西不對稱相比 有改善許多
最新一張底層掃描顯示 也有開始捲眼的的跡象
目前還有約兩天的發展時間 就看能不能進一步 RI

1. WTIO30 FMEE 050110
   
2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
   
3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
   
4. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/6/20162017
   
5. 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ENAWO)
   
6. 2.A POSITION 2017/03/05 AT 0000 UTC:
   
7. WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8 S / 56.5 E
   
8. (THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
   
9. MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY
   
10. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H
    
11. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
    
12. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
    
13. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM
    
14. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
    
15. 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SW: 330 NW: 280
    
16. 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 110 SW: 170 NW: 170
    
17. 48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 70
    
18. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
    
19. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
    
20. 
    
21. 1.B FORECASTS:
    
22. 12H: 2017/03/05 12 UTC: 14.1 S / 55.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
23. 24H: 2017/03/06 00 UTC: 14.3 S / 54.4 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
24. 36H: 2017/03/06 12 UTC: 14.6 S / 53.0 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
25. 48H: 2017/03/07 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 51.5 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
26. 60H: 2017/03/07 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 50.2 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
27. 72H: 2017/03/08 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 49.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
    
28. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
    
29. 96H: 2017/03/09 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 47.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
    
30. 120H: 2017/03/10 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 47.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
    
31. 
    
32. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
    
33. T=CI=4.0-
    
34. DURING THE NIGHT, THE CENTER OF ENAWO HAS REMAINED EMBEDDED WITHIN
    
35. COLD CLOUD TOP AS THE CLOUD PATTERN GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS A LARGE
    
36. CURVED BAND. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED FROM 18Z WITH MOST OF
    
37. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE (ADT) REMAINS AT THE SAME LEVEL.
    
38. RARE GOOD QUALITY AVAILABLE FIX TONIGHT SUGGEST THAT THE STORM HAS
    
39. DRIFT NORTHWARDS YESTERDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY A SOUTHWARDS DRIFT.
    
40. OVERALL THE MOTION IS STILL ASSESSED AS QUASI-STAT. ENAWO IS DELAYING ITS
    
41. WESTWARDS MOTION THAT IS HOWEVER STILL EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE LATER
    
42. TODAY. THIS GENERAL WESTWARDS TO WEST SOUTHWESTWARDS MOTION IS DUE
    
43. TO A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTH AFRICA THAT IS
    
44. EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY EXTEND SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR THUS BECOMING
    
45. THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW.
    
46. AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THIS STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
    
47. DECAY, INDUCING A GRADUALLY SOUTHWARDS TRACK. WITH THE ONGOING
    
48. DELAYED OF THE WESTWARDS MOTION, THE TIMING OF LANDFALL OR FINAL
    
49. APPROACH OF MADAGASCAR HAS BEEN ALSO DELAYED IN BEST AGREEMENT
    
50. WITH THE VERY LATEST CYCLE FROM GFS AND IFS (18 UTC CYCLE).
    
51. IF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT SUFFER FROM A LACK OF OCEAN HEAT CONTAIN DUE TO
    
52. ITS CURRENT VERY SLOW MOTION, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD
    
53. REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION UNTIL THE FINAL APPROACH
    
54. OF MADAGASCAR.

複製代碼

Meow

已升格熱帶氣旋，再次預期巔峰達到100kt。

1. WTIO30 FMEE 050621
   
2. 
   
3. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
   
4. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
   
5. 
   
6. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/6/20162017
   
7. 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (ENAWO)
   
8. 
   
9. 2.A POSITION 2017/03/05 AT 0600 UTC:
   
10. WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6 S / 56.0 E
    
11. (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
    
12. MOVEMENT : WEST 5 KT
    
13. 
    
14. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H
    
15. 
    
16. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 974 HPA
    
17. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
    
18. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :24 KM
    
19. 
    
20. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
    
21. 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 370 SW: 190 NW: 280
    
22. 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 110 NW: 150
    
23. 48 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SW: 60 NW: 70
    
24. 64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20
    
25. 
    
26. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1500 KM
    
27. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
    
28. 
    
29. 1.B FORECASTS:
    
30. 12H: 2017/03/05 18 UTC: 13.9 S / 55.2 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
31. 24H: 2017/03/06 06 UTC: 14.3 S / 54.1 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
32. 36H: 2017/03/06 18 UTC: 14.9 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
33. 48H: 2017/03/07 06 UTC: 15.4 S / 51.0 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
34. 60H: 2017/03/07 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 49.9 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
35. 72H: 2017/03/08 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 48.5 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
    
36. 
    
37. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
    
38. 96H: 2017/03/09 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 46.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
    
39. 120H: 2017/03/10 06 UTC: 24.7 S / 47.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
    
40. 
    
41. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
    
42. T=CI=4.5-
    
43. 
    
44. DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. THE 0235UTC WINDSAT DATA ALLOWS TO PROVIDE A QUALITY LOCATION AND CONFIRMS THE WESTWARD MOVEMENT. AT 06UTC, THE ENAWO CENTER IS LOCATED AT SOUTH EDGE OF THE COLDEST CLOUD. ENAWO IS NOW TROPICAL CYCLONE, CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATION IN ACCORDANCE WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF SATCON.
    
45. 
    
46. TODAY, THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR ORIENTS THE TRACK IN A GENERAL DIRECTION TOWARDS WEST-SOUTHWEST. A LANDFALL IS ESTIMATED AT THE EVENING ON TUESDAY IN MADAGASCAR. AFTER LANDING, MOVING SHOULD FOLLOW A PARABOLIC TRACK SOUTHWARDS, BECAUSE OF THE WEAKENING OF THE MIDDLE TROPO RIDGE ON MADAGASCAR.
    
47. 
    
48. THE RESUMPTION OF SYSTEM DISPLACEMENT AND THE GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (WEAK WINDSHEAR, HIGH OHC ...) DURING THE NEXT DAYS SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE INTENSIFICATION UNTIL THE FINAL APPROACH OF MADAGASCAR.

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