ben811018

底層的狀況似乎還有待改善緩慢朝馬達加斯加前進中

Meow

突然就……

t02436

12Z站上ITC，還剩最後一天發展時間。

ZCZC 257
WTIO30 FMEE 061321 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/6/20162017
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE  6  (ENAWO)
2.A POSITION 2017/03/06 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1 S / 53.1 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE    DECIMAL
ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 954 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 370 SW: 300 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 300 SW: 240 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SW: 150 NW: 150
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2017/03/07 00 UTC: 14.7 S / 51.5 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2017/03/07 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 50.1 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2017/03/08 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 48.9 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2017/03/08 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 47.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2017/03/09 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 47.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2017/03/09 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 46.9 E, MAX WIND=000 , OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5
NNNN

Meow

3月6日熱帶氣旋Enawo接近馬達加斯加

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wi ... 017-03-06_1010Z.jpg

ben811018

接近陸地前猛爆至１２５ｋｔｓ！
風眼清晰可見，相當紮實！

Meow

法國氣象局稍早評價最大風速110節、中心氣壓925百帕，基本確定為2004年Gafilo以來登陸馬達加斯加最強氣旋。好消息是登陸點較預期稍偏北，應該可以緩解風暴潮威力。

1. WTIO30 FMEE 070719
   
2. 
   
3. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
   
4. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
   
5. 
   
6. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/6/20162017
   
7. 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (ENAWO)
   
8. 
   
9. 2.A POSITION 2017/03/07 AT 0600 UTC:
   
10. WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7 S / 50.6 E
    
11. (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
    
12. MOVEMENT : WEST 8 KT
    
13. 
    
14. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/D 2.0/24 H
    
15. 
    
16. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 925 HPA
    
17. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
    
18. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :17 KM
    
19. 
    
20. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
    
21. 28 KT NE: 370 SE: 410 SW: 330 NW: 260
    
22. 34 KT NE: 190 SE: 300 SW: 240 NW: 190
    
23. 48 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 110
    
24. 64 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60
    
25. 
    
26. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1100 KM
    
27. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
    
28. 
    
29. 1.B FORECASTS:
    
30. 12H: 2017/03/07 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 49.3 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
    
31. 24H: 2017/03/08 06 UTC: 16.5 S / 47.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
    
32. 36H: 2017/03/08 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 46.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
    
33. 48H: 2017/03/09 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 46.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
    
34. 60H: 2017/03/09 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 46.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
    
35. 72H: 2017/03/10 06 UTC: 26.3 S / 47.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
    
36. 
    
37. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
    
38. 96H: 2017/03/11 06 UTC: 33.4 S / 48.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
    
39. 120H: 2017/03/12 06 UTC: 40.1 S / 43.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
    
40. 
    
41. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
    
42. T=CI=6.5-
    
43. 
    
44. THE EYE PATTERN OF ENAWO IS IMPRESSIVE. THE EYE DEFINITION SHOWN SOME FLUCTUATIONS ERALIER BUT REMAINS OVERALL VERY GOOD. SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY, CLOUD TOPS HAS COOLED AGAIN AROUND ENAWO'S AYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE GUIDANCES.
    
45. 
    
46. THE SYSTEM HAS BENDED TOWARDS DUE WEST AND SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL BEFORE 09 TU OVER OR JUST NORTH OF ANTALAHA.
    
47. 
    
48. THE STEERING FLOW ALLOW TO MAINTAIN A TRACK TOWARDS WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH A RELATIVELY CONSTANT SPEED BEFORE THE LANDFALL, EXPECTED AT MIDDAY OF TUESDAY ON MADAGASCAR. THEN, ENAWO SHOULD FOLLOW A PARABOLIC TRACK SOUTHWARDS, BECAUSE OF THE WEAKENING OF THE MID- TROPOSPHERE RIDGE ON MADAGASCAR. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. AS THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE BACK OVER OPEN WATER LATER THIS WEEK (THURSDAY NIGHT) AROUND THE SOUTH-EAST OF MADAGASCAR, EXTRATROP PROCESS SHOULD START SOON WITH A BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH-WEST.
    
49. 
    
50. WITH A REAL TRACK FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED, THE STORM SURGE IN THE ANTONGIL BAY SHOULD BE LESS THAN EXPECTED. IT IS NOW EXPECTED TO REACH 1-2 METERS NEAR MAROANTSETRA. AT ANTALAHA WITH A BATHYMETRIE LESS CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG STORM SURGE EVENT, EXPECTED STORM SURGE VALUE IS WITHIN THE SAME RANGE (BEWARE THAT THIS VALUE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE TIDE AND THE WAVE SET UP).

複製代碼

s6815711

21Z發佈FW

蜜露

強颱下限的Enawo , 影響馬達加斯加後 . 部分地方積水 .