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09S.Enawo 2004年以來登陸馬達加斯加最強氣旋

簽到天數: 1988 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

ben811018|2017-3-6 10:23 | 顯示全部樓層
sh092017.20170306013727.gif 20170305.2310.f15.85rgb.09S.ENAWO.90kts.961mb.13.9S.55.1E.060pc.jpg

底層的狀況似乎還有待改善緩慢朝馬達加斯加前進中



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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2017-3-6 16:22 | 顯示全部樓層
突然就……
20170306.0800.meteo7.x.vis1km.09SENAWO.90kts-963mb-140S-538E.100pc.jpg

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +10 收起 理由
ben811018 + 10 贊一個!

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-3-6 22:14 | 顯示全部樓層
12Z站上ITC,還剩最後一天發展時間。
ZCZC 257
WTIO30 FMEE 061321 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/6/20162017
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE  6  (ENAWO)
2.A POSITION 2017/03/06 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1 S / 53.1 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE    DECIMAL
ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 954 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 370 SW: 300 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 300 SW: 240 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SW: 150 NW: 150
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2017/03/07 00 UTC: 14.7 S / 51.5 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2017/03/07 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 50.1 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2017/03/08 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 48.9 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2017/03/08 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 47.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2017/03/09 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 47.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2017/03/09 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 46.9 E, MAX WIND=000 , OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5
NNNN

SWI_20162017.png

20170306.1330.meteo-7.ircolor.09S.ENAWO.100kts.955mb.14.1S.53E.100pc.jpg
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2017-3-7 00:04 | 顯示全部樓層
3月6日熱帶氣旋Enawo接近馬達加斯加
Enawo 2017-03-06 1010Z.jpg
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wi ... 017-03-06_1010Z.jpg
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簽到天數: 1988 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

ben811018|2017-3-7 10:43 | 顯示全部樓層
15515.PNG 20170307.0044.f16.91pct91h91v.09S.ENAWO.125kts.929mb.14.6S.51.5E.065pc.jpg sh092017.20170307010005.gif

接近陸地前猛爆至125kts!
風眼清晰可見,相當紮實!
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2017-3-7 15:39 | 顯示全部樓層
法國氣象局稍早評價最大風速110節、中心氣壓925百帕,基本確定為2004年Gafilo以來登陸馬達加斯加最強氣旋。好消息是登陸點較預期稍偏北,應該可以緩解風暴潮威力。
SWI_20162017.png
  1. WTIO30 FMEE 070719

  2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

  4. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/6/20162017
  5. 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (ENAWO)

  6. 2.A POSITION 2017/03/07 AT 0600 UTC:
  7. WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7 S / 50.6 E
  8. (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
  9. MOVEMENT : WEST 8 KT

  10. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/D 2.0/24 H

  11. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 925 HPA
  12. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
  13. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :17 KM

  14. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  15. 28 KT NE: 370 SE: 410 SW: 330 NW: 260
  16. 34 KT NE: 190 SE: 300 SW: 240 NW: 190
  17. 48 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 110
  18. 64 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60

  19. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1100 KM
  20. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

  21. 1.B FORECASTS:
  22. 12H: 2017/03/07 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 49.3 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  23. 24H: 2017/03/08 06 UTC: 16.5 S / 47.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
  24. 36H: 2017/03/08 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 46.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
  25. 48H: 2017/03/09 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 46.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
  26. 60H: 2017/03/09 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 46.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
  27. 72H: 2017/03/10 06 UTC: 26.3 S / 47.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

  28. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
  29. 96H: 2017/03/11 06 UTC: 33.4 S / 48.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  30. 120H: 2017/03/12 06 UTC: 40.1 S / 43.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

  31. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  32. T=CI=6.5-

  33. THE EYE PATTERN OF ENAWO IS IMPRESSIVE. THE EYE DEFINITION SHOWN SOME FLUCTUATIONS ERALIER BUT REMAINS OVERALL VERY GOOD. SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY, CLOUD TOPS HAS COOLED AGAIN AROUND ENAWO'S AYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE GUIDANCES.

  34. THE SYSTEM HAS BENDED TOWARDS DUE WEST AND SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL BEFORE 09 TU OVER OR JUST NORTH OF ANTALAHA.

  35. THE STEERING FLOW ALLOW TO MAINTAIN A TRACK TOWARDS WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH A RELATIVELY CONSTANT SPEED BEFORE THE LANDFALL, EXPECTED AT MIDDAY OF TUESDAY ON MADAGASCAR. THEN, ENAWO SHOULD FOLLOW A PARABOLIC TRACK SOUTHWARDS, BECAUSE OF THE WEAKENING OF THE MID- TROPOSPHERE RIDGE ON MADAGASCAR. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. AS THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE BACK OVER OPEN WATER LATER THIS WEEK (THURSDAY NIGHT) AROUND THE SOUTH-EAST OF MADAGASCAR, EXTRATROP PROCESS SHOULD START SOON WITH A BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH-WEST.

  36. WITH A REAL TRACK FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED, THE STORM SURGE IN THE ANTONGIL BAY SHOULD BE LESS THAN EXPECTED. IT IS NOW EXPECTED TO REACH 1-2 METERS NEAR MAROANTSETRA. AT ANTALAHA WITH A BATHYMETRIE LESS CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG STORM SURGE EVENT, EXPECTED STORM SURGE VALUE IS WITHIN THE SAME RANGE (BEWARE THAT THIS VALUE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE TIDE AND THE WAVE SET UP).
複製代碼
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

s6815711|2017-3-8 16:49 | 顯示全部樓層
21Z發佈FW
sh0917.gif

2017SH09_4KMIRIMG_201703080745.GIF


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[LV.9]以壇為家II

蜜露|2017-3-9 23:23 | 顯示全部樓層


強颱下限的Enawo , 影響馬達加斯加後 . 部分地方積水 .

enawo.jpg


photo_verybig_6895.jpg




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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
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